Taking time off to catch up on records

Before I started this blog in June 2008, I spent about six months compiling statistics on all aspects of Southern California maiden sprint races. From June 2008 to April 2009, I posted picks here in nine of 11 months, earning  a profit in eight months. As of April 30, 2009, my total winnings were $21,685.

But, because I also work 40-50 hours a week at a Las Vegas race & sports book, it is difficult to find the time to both do the blog and keep up with the research necessary to keep my finger on the pulse of Southern California racing. The angles that worked 10 months ago may or may not be working today. And if they are working, the odds ranges I need might have drastically changed.

So, as 2009 has gone by, the info I compile has become more and more outdated. For example, the statistics I need to evaluate trainer angles are  missing the last four months. And that’s not too bad when compared to the year’s worth of data I need to enter for my pace model, which is crucial for 6-1/2 and 7-furlong races.

And because I’m using old information, my winning has turned to losing. In fact, from May 2009 until today, I posted losses in five of six months and am down a total of $7,225 for that period.

Really, right now there is no way I can catch up with the record keeping while continuing to do the blog and bet the horses. Also, I am now taking a mandatory three-hour class for work which includes three hours of homework a week. The class may not sound like much, but with running weekly errands, tracking stocks and bonds, sleeping and going to the gym, I had nowhere to fit it in.

In the future, it looks like I’ll need to select certain meets to play, such as Santa Anita, Del Mar and Oak Tree while using the other months to evaluate and compile information. 

So, I am going to stop on the blog for a few months until I am up to date on everything, which — if all goes well — should be sometime in early 2010.

Results, Santa Anita Sunday Race 1 — lost $300

Joel Rosario harnessed Paddy's Magic's speed then let him loose in the stretch

To me, it looked like #1 Paddy’s Magic could have taken a maiden special weight race rather than the $32,000 maiden claimer that he won.

Not only did this gelding, who was the 8-to-5 favorite, win by a wide margin, but he also broke slowly and made up four lengths on the backstretch in the blink of an eye. On Aug. 23, Paddy’s Magic had a bad trip when running a 65 Beyer Speed Figure, but I did not see five lengths worth of trouble.

Breaking next to Paddy’s Magic in this race was #2 Learn the Sport, who ran a 76 Beyer on Sept. 4. Coming into the race, I liked Learn the Sport because he had the right running style for 6-1/2 furlongs, he had the top last race Beyer and he was 4-to-1.

But it wasn’t Learn the Sport’s day, as jockey Reyes Santiago pushed him along in the stretch without response. I also liked two second timers in here but neither of them landed in the odds zone. 

In the end, I bet $300 on #2 Learn the Sport.

To watch a replay of this race, go to www.calracing.com.

PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN 1 1 Paddy’s Magic (KY) Rosario J Zucker H 1.60 1 2 2 Learn the Sport (KY) Santiago Reyes C Abrams B 4.20 5 3 3 Bernsie’s Baby (CA) Atkinson P Van Berg J 102.30 8 4 4 Raja (CA) Arambula P Martinez S 171.40 9 5 5 Nanni the Teaser (KY) Delgadillo A Harty E 12.80 7 6 6 Hawk Star (CA) Valdez F Fama D 48.70 3 7 7 Big Mikie M. (CA) Baze M Eurton P 5.70 6 8 8 Boo Too (KY) Talamo J Periban J 13.00 4 9 9 Remember Mike (KY) Flores D Conlon M 2.40 2

Pgm Win Place Show 1 $5.20 $2.80 $2.60 9 - $4.00 $3.60 6 - - $15.80   Exotic Payoffs $1.00 Exacta paid $11.00 (1-9) $1.00 Superfecta paid $1433.90 (1-9-6-8)

Results, Santa Anita Saturday Race 10 — lost $500

Jockey Joe Talamo took #7 Get My Fix off the pace then rolled to victory in the stretch

 Usually, when Bob Baffert starts two horses in a race, one or both of them run huge.

In this event, Baffert saddled both #4 The Program, 16-to-1, and #5 Mr Charlie, 4-to-1. But, surprisingly, both broke slowly and neither one fired.

The winner, #7 Get My Fix trained by Brian Koriner, was one of the most likely winners when looking at the past performances. This 2-year-old had run a 79 Beyer Speed Figure in his second lifetime start on Aug. 8, which is significant because the median Beyer Speed Figure for this class is an 80. In his last race, Get My Fix rated behind the leaders and finished up well, which is the preferred running style for 6-1/2 furlongs.

Others who looked like they had a shot were #9 Frisco Kid, a first-time starter who went off at 13-to-1, and #1 The Skinny Man, a 7-to-2 shot. Neither ran well, although The Skinny Man showed speed until the stretch.

In the race, Get My Fix and jockey Joe Talamo mowed down pace setter #10 El Gran Matador while outrunning another late runner, #6 Domonation. In my betting scenario, I intended to bet $200 on Get My Fix if his odds were 5-to-2 or better. But the bet was live only if both #4 The Program and #9 Frisco Kid were 8-to-1 and #5 Mr Charlie was less than 4-to-1.

As the horses loaded into the gate, I bet The Program at 16/1 and Frisco Kid at 13/1. Then Mr Charlie’s odds moved up from 7/2 to 4/1, so I ended up betting him instead of Get My Fix. In all, I wagered $500.

To watch a replay of this race, go to www.calracing.com.

PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN 1 1 The Skinny Man (KY) Bejarano R O’Neill D 3.90 9 2 2 Kuro (KY) Espinoza V Machowsky M 15.40 6 3 3 Mister Do It (KY) Valdivia, Jr. J Hendricks D 53.90 10 4 4 The Program (KY) Garcia M Baffert B 16.00 5 5 5 Mr Charlie (KY) Smith M Baffert B 4.00 8 6 6 Domonation (KY) Rosario J Sadler J 8.40 2 7 7 Get My Fix (KY) Talamo J Koriner B 2.80 1 8 8 Brady Blue Eyes (KY) Borel C Glatt M 4.20 4 9 9 Frisco Kid (FL) Solis A Headley B 13.60 7 10 10 El Gran Matador (NY) Santiago Reyes C Becerra R 53.70 3

Pgm Win Place Show 7 $7.60 $4.40 $3.60 6 - $9.40 $6.80 10 - - $16.40   Exotic Payoffs $1.00 Exacta paid $39.30 (7-6) $1.00 Pick 3 paid $91.20 (5-1-7) $1.00 Pick 4 paid $1679.50 (8-2/5-1-7) $1.00 Pick 5 paid $3351.10 (1/6/9-8-2/5-1-7) $1.00 Place Pick All paid $583.30 (10 OF 10) $1.00 Super High Five paid $0.00 (NO WINNING TICKE $1.00 Superfecta paid $9445.30 (7-6-10-8) $1.00 Trifecta paid $1372.40 (7-6-10) $2.00 Daily Double paid $84.40 (1-7) $2.00 Pick 6 paid $11781.60 (10-1/6/9-8-2/5-1-7) $2.00 Pick 6 paid $89.60 (10-1/6/9-8-2/5-1-7)

Results, Santa Anita Saturday Race 5 — lost $450

Trainer Bob Baffert gave a leg up to jockey Rafael Bejarano on 4-to-5 shot Excellent News

Almost all of Bob Baffert’s horses are bred to win stakes races, so they can dominate a field of maiden special weight sprinters at any moment.

Rafael Bejarano rode #10 Excellent News in her third lifetime race after she spun an 82 Beyer Speed Figure in her second race on Aug. 29. Since the median winning Beyer Speed Figure for this race was just an 80, Excellent News was a standout – especially considering that the next highest Beyer was just a 69.

There were no secrets with this filly. She had the top Beyer, a top jockey and a top trainer. It was easy to see her outstanding qualifications and it was no surprise that the public knocked Excellent News’ odds to 4-to-5.

But with odds this low, horses need to win some 70-to-80 percent of the time to make a bet worthwhile. And all of us bettors are all dealing with incomplete information, so it’s tough to find angles that work seven out of 10 times.

A couple of first timers in this race — #4 Stunning Ally and #7 Carrie Rose – had strong long-term angles working for them. And I also took a chance on second-time starter #5 Evening Jewel.

However, Excellent News won like a 4-to-5 shot should win.

At the window, I wagered $200 on Stunning Ally at 9/1, $100 on Evening Jewel at 5/1 and $150 on Carrie Rose at 8/1.

To watch a replay of this race, go to www.calracing.com.

PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN 1 1 Dance the Dance (CA) Talamo J Hofmans D 37.50 6 2 2 Shesoprovocative (CA) Espinoza V Becerra R 13.20 5 3 3 Pocatello Wild Kat (CA) Baze M Fanning J 63.20 8 4 4 Stunning Ally (CA) Quinonez A Canani J 9.50 4 5 5 Evening Jewel (CA) Smith M Cassidy J 5.40 2 6 6 Giveme Onereason (CA) Santiago Reyes C Solis W 35.10 3 7 7 Carrie Rose (CA) Gomez G Mitchell M 8.30 9 8 8 Tiz Cee’s Ballet (CA) Martin G Locke T 57.40 10 9 9 High Five Gal (CA) Rosario J O’Neill D 7.00 7 10 10 Excellent News (CA) Bejarano R Baffert B 0.80 1

Pgm Win Place Show 10 $3.60 $2.40 $2.40 5 - $4.60 $4.20 6 - - $8.60   Exotic Payoffs $1.00 Exacta paid $8.80 (10-5) $1.00

Sunday, Santa Anita Race 1 — 12:30 pm post time

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden claiming $32,000, 6-1/2 furlongs

Possible overlays                     Morning line

#2 Learn the Sport                        7/2
#5 Nanni the Teaser                       8/1
#8 Boo Too                                   8/1
#9 Remember Mike                         2/1

A 78 Beyer Speed Figure is the median winning number for this class and the only runner close to that is #2 Learn the Sport. This Barry Abrams-trained runner broke slowly in his last at 6 furlongs but came with a strong rail-hugging run to earn a 76 Beyer. He was recently gelded, he should relish the extra half furlong and looks tough.

Trainer Jorge Periban claimed #8 Boo Too on Sept. 30 from Craig Lewis for $22,500 and steps him up the class ladder. Boo Too ran very well on Sept. 10 at Fairplex Park, losing to the a good maiden claimer named Morton Owen. However, something went very wrong in his last as Boo Too finished eleventh. To compete with these, Boo Too will need to regain his best form and then some. One big drawback is that Periban is 0-for-24 when running back first after the claim, according to the Daily Racing Form.

Finally, two second time starters are dropping in class. Both #5 Nanni the Teaser and #9 Remember Mike ran decently in their debuts and have been working out well. If the money shows up, I’m interested.

Betting Scenarios: I will put $300 to win on #2 Learn the Sport at odds of 5/2 to 7/1 only. If Learn the Sport goes off at 8/1 or better, then my wager drops to $100.

Also, I will put $150 to win on #9 Remember Mike at 5/2 to 7/1 only. If that colt falls out of the betting range, then I want $100 to win on #5 Nanni the Teaser at 5/2 to 7/1 instead.

Saturday, Santa Anita Race 10 — 5 pm post time

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden Special Weight, 2-year-olds, 6-1/2 furlongs

Possible overlays                  Morning line

#1 The Skinny Man                       3/1
#4 The Program                            12/1
#5 Mr Charlie                                6/1
#7 Get My Fix                               5/2
#9 Frisco Kid                                 8/1

On Aug. 29, co-favorites #1 The Skinny Man raced against #7 Get My Fix and only a whisker separated the two for second place. Both colts have decent early speed, they’ve both run in the neighborhood of the 80 median winning Beyer Speed Figure for this class, and they’re learning how to rate.

Either of them can win, but it won’t be easy.

Although neither half of the uncoupled Bob Baffert entry came close to winning their debut, I expect either #4 The Program or #5 Mr Charlie to run very well today. I have seen Baffert work his magic too many times to ignore his colts even when the morning line maker seems to be disregarding them. 

The Program appears to have been bought for $310,000 while Mr Charlie looks like a $725,000 purchase. Although these purchase prices are published in the Daily Racing Form, sometimes nobody really paid that much for the horse and the published sale price is the amount the animal was bought back for when the sale’s reserve price was not met.  Anyway, Baffert doesn’t train many mules and these two have been working out well. So I expect big things.

In The Program’s last race, he came out of the gate very slowly and while watching the replay it was difficult to tell if jockey Mike Smith intentionally pulled him to the back. But one thing I am sure of is that Smith certainly wasn’t hustling The Program down the backstretch.

And another thing that makes me curious about The Program is that, according to my records, Baffert and The Program’s jockey Martin Garcia won with five first-time starters from just 12 rides for a return of $3.31 for every $1 wagered. These Baffert/Garcia firsters were all in 2006-07, so they happened too long ago to be included in the DRF’s statistics, which show that the Baffert/Garcia team are 0-for-3 overall since 2008.

I know The Program is not running in his debut, but my point is that Garcia might be one of Baffet’s money riders. All I am saying is beware.

As for Mr Charlie, he seemed to be full of run in his Sept. 7 race. As it began, Mr Charlie went to the lead with hardly any encouragement from jockey Joe Talamo. However, right next to Talamo that day was Indian Firewater, who is another Baffert runner, and Indian Firewater exploded in the stretch while Mr Charlie faded.

But I’m sure that was not Mr Charlie’s best run.

OK, moving on. The last promising horse is #9 Frisco Kid. The only drawback with him is that trainer Bruce Headley is 0-for-11 with debuting MSW juveniles over the last five years, according to “A Closer Look” in the DRF. Otherwise, Frisco Kid is the prototype of what a winning debuter looks like.

And don’t ask me why, but a higher percentage of first timers win at 6-1/2 furlongs than at any other distance.

At odds of 7/2 to 19/1, I will bet $200 to win on #9 Frisco Kid. Also, I’ll put $150 on #4 The Program at 5/1 or better and $150 on #5 Mr Charlie at 4/1 or more. However, if The Program and Frisco Kid both go off at odds of 8/1 or higher and Mr Charlie is less than 4/1, then I will also put $200 on #7 Get My Fix at 5/2 or more.

Saturday, Santa Anita Race 5 — 2:30 pm post time

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden Special Weight, 6 furlongs, 2-yo fillies

Possible overlays                       Morning line

#1 Dance the Dance                           15/1
#4 Stunning Ally                                  6/1
#5 Evening Jewel                                 6/1
#7 Carrie Rose                                     8/1

The obvious favorite of this bunch is #10 Excellent News, who rang up an 82 Beyer Speed Figure in her last race on Aug. 29 while finishing second to Miss Georgie Girl. Since Excellent News has already ran a speed figure that’s better than the median winning number of 80, she is the most likely winner. However, the Baffert brand name will ensure she’s way overbet.

Therefore, I’m looking toward either a couple of first time starters or a filly making her second lifetime run to get the job done at a price.

Over the past year or so, trainer Mike Mitchell has been firing well with his young horses when he sends them out in their debuts.  And it doesn’t hurt that Garrett Gomez will be aboard #7 Carrie Rose, especially when noting that the Gomez-Mitchell tandem has produced 27 winners from their last 82 runners. A $1 bet on all of them yielded $1.31, according to the Daily Racing Form.

James Cassidy saddles #5 Evening Jewel who was bet to 9/2 in her first lifetime race on Aug. 23. On that day, Evening Jewel ran evenly in the middle of the pack, however when I watched the replay it looked to me like  jockey David Flores was taking it easy on her. This filly has some nice workouts and she fits the profile of a winning second-time starter.

Breaking just inside of Evening Jewel will be #4 Stunning Ally, who is another debuter. Julio Canani has this daughter of In Excess working out well and she looks like a bet if the price is right.

Finally, owners Rod and Lorraine Rodriguez have had much success winning with debut horses over the years, but I am not that big of a fan of their filly, #1 Dance the Dance. At the right price, though, a small bet based on the connections may be in order.

I will wager $200 on #7 Carrie Rose from 3/1 to 9/1, but just $100 at 10/1 and up. Also, I will take  $200 on #5 Evening Jewel at 5/2 to 9/1 and $100 at 10/1 or higher. Finally, if #4 Stunning Ally is 7/2 to 9/1, I want $150 to win on her, but I’ll take $200 to win at 10/1 to 19/1.

Results, Santa Anita Sunday Race 9 — lost $300

Trainer Carl O'Callaghan, who won with 9/1 shot Brian the Brave, regularly performs Irish music at L.A. bars

In July, trainer Carl O’Callaghan sent #12 Brian the Brave to be gelded and when the 3-year-old came back to the races on Sept. 4, the new gelding was a faster, more valuable animal.

In that first comeback race, Brian the Brave ran a 71 Beyer Speed Figure while four paths wide on the turn, which was probably his fastest race up until that point.  In the interim, Brian the Brave had two fast workouts which set him up well for Sunday when he broke his maiden at 9-to-1 by running down #11 Launch the Bull.

And Launch the Bull was no slouch. Coming into the race, Launch the Bull exceeded the median Beyer Speed Figure needed to win at this class in his last three starts.

All of Launch the Bull’s three losses were against higher-priced maiden claimers. The one big knock on Launch the Bull, though, is that this Peter Miller-trainee tires late and seems to always get caught at the wire.

Sunday was no different.

The race began with speed ball #6 Jamieson going straight to the front on the backstretch. Both Launch the Bull and Brian the Brave were stalking the pace from about a length behind. And midway on the turn, both surged to the lead as a team.

At the top of the lane, Launch the Bull pulled away from Brian the Brave by a length, but just like in his past races, Launch the Bull couldn’t hold the lead and Brian the Brave nailed him at the wire.

The win was just the third of the year for trainer Carl O’Callaghan, who moonlights by performing Irish music in Los Angeles and San Diego area bars. By clicking on his name, you can check his music website or here for his stable site.

I bet $300 on Launch the Bull at 2/1.

To watch a replay of this race, go to www.calracing.com.

PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN 1 1 Adebayor (KY) Garcia M O’Neill D 4.20 5 3 2 Heisman U (KY) Rivera C Stute G 28.70 6 4 3 Fun in the Park (CA) Arambula P Periban J 103.50 9 6 4 Jamieson (CA) Baze T Zucker H 3.50 8 7 5 Escaping the Storm (FL) Bejarano R Hess, Jr. R 4.20 3 9 6 Ol’dogtown (CA) Scott J Bellasis R 23.70 7 10 7 Eminent Honor (KY) Iniguez S Fernandez V 68.90 10 11 8 Launch the Bull (KY) Santiago Reyes C Miller P 2.00 2 12 9 Brian the Brave (KY) Quinonez A O’Callaghan C 9.40 1 13 10 Father Grumpy (CA) Rosario J Gutierrez J 15.10 4 SCR - Halo’s Limit (KY) Olivarez M Jimenez J - - SCR - Louie Tre (FL)     - - SCR - Freetoagoodhome (CA) Valdez F Wicker L - - SCR - Tumbling Dice Man (CA) Atkinson P Pender M - -

Pgm Win Place Show 12 $20.80 $8.00 $6.20 11 - $3.40 $2.80 7 - - $2.80   Exotic Payoffs $1.00 Consolation Pick 3 paid $7.10 (10-2-7/8)

Cal Cup Day — lost $600

Trainer Doug O'Neill sadded both halves of the Juvenile Stakes exacta

Saturday was California Cup Day, so no maiden races were slated.

I played the 2-year-old stakes races, which were both run at 7 furlongs, but the closest I got was when #5 Wolf Tail came charging late for second place in the Juvenile. Doug O’Neill not only trained Wolf Tail, a 6/1 shot, but he also saddled the winner, Bench the Judge, at 5/1.

In the Juvenile Fillies, I liked #2 Miss Georgie Girl, who did absolutely nothing. Garrett Gomez was urging her on in the stretch, but Miss Georgie Girl’s tank was empty as she faded to the back of the pack.

PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN 1 1 Take a Peak (CA) Nakatani C Hollendorfer J 23.30 6 2 2 Miss Georgie Girl (CA) Gomez G Walsh K 2.80 8 3 3 Camille C (CA) Bejarano R Polanco M 3.50 2 4 4 Dinnr With Nikki C (CA) Santiago Reyes C Sherlock G 55.20 5 5 5 Puritan Baker (CA) Rosario J Lenzini M 24.60 4 6 6 Whispering Hush (CA) Solis A Kruljac J 3.60 3 7 7 U Turn Me Crazy (CA) Gryder A Koriner B 26.10 7 8 8 La Nez (CA) Smith M Kruljac J 2.20 1 9 9 Moon Quist Rose (CA) Baze R Morey W 23.80 9

Pgm Win Place Show 8 $6.40 $3.60 $2.40 3 - $4.60 $3.00 6 - - $2.80 PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN 1 1 Warren’s Doc Gus (CA) Bejarano R Gutierrez J 7.80 7 2 2 Swiss Exploit (CA) Baze M Harrington M 42.00 6 3 3 Really Uptown (CA) Garcia M Harrington M 7.60 4 5 4 Wolf Tail (CA) Rosario J O’Neill D 6.30 2 6 5 Swiss Arrogant (CA) Gomez G Carava J 10.10 9 7 6 Runaway Bandido (CA) Quinonez A Becerra R 2.80 3 8 7 Tribal Face (CA) Baze T Knapp S 2.70 5 9 8 Bench the Judge (KY) Santiago Reyes C O’Neill D 5.90 1 10 9 Chocolate Marini (CA) Valdivia, Jr. J Hendricks D 31.90 8 SCR - Cat Calloway (CA)     - - Pgm Win Place Show 9 $13.80 $6.40 $3.40 5 - $8.00 $4.60 7 - - $3.00   Exotic Payoffs $1.00 Consolation Pick 3 paid $35.20 (3-4-9)     Exotic Payoffs $1.00 Exacta paid $12.70 (8-3) $1.00 Pick 3 paid $83.50 (1-2-8) $

Results, Santa Anita Wednesday Race 9 — lost $550

Jockey Kyle Kaenel rocked the tote board to the tune of $157 with Spartan Jet

At 77-to-1, it should come as no surprise that Spartan Jet’s only two past performance lines were ugly. In both races, he broke slowly, made no move on the turn and had no rally in the stretch. 

But on Wednesday, Spartan Jet broke alertly and virtually led this 12-horse field wire-to-wire, lighting up the toteboard with a $157.60 win payoff.

Before being awarded the official victory, however, owner-trainer Juan Lopez had to sweat out a claim of foul by jockey Martin Pedroza. Pedroza, who ironically rode Spartan Jet in his first two starts, claimed that his mount Red Door Drive was impeded when rider Kyle Kaenel allowed Spartan Jet to swerve out approaching midstretch.

Red Door Drive, trained by Bob Baffert, had last raced in September 2008 and nine of his 10 lifetime races were on the turf. In Wednesday’s race, Red Door Drive moved from last place on the turn to a good stalking position about two lengths away from the leaders.

As the field moved into the stretch, Pedroza tried to take Red Door Drive outside of Spartan Jet, but that horse unexpectedly swerved suddenly, so Pedroza went inside. Red Door Drive had plenty of time to pass Spartan Jet but — perhaps because he was inside of him — Red Door Drive never went by and lost by a head.

At 7/2, I bet $300 on Red Door Drive, wagered $150 more on #8 Good Newsman at 3/1 and another $100 on 23-to-1 shot #10 Little Heater.

To watch a replay of this race, go to www.calracing.com.

PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN 1 1 Irish Weis Man (CA) Quinonez A Abrams B 37.10 7 2 2 Panda (CA) Santiago Reyes C Van Berg J 12.70 6 3 3 Red Door Drive (KY) Pedroza M Baffert B 3.80 2 4 4 Whizer (CA) Valdez F Bradvica L 28.80 10 5 5 Trueno (CA) Vergara O Capitaine N 16.50 4 6 6 Spartan Jet (KY) Delgadillo A Lopez J 77.80 1 7 7 Smokenomore (CA) Migliore R Spawr W 6.90 8 8 8 Good Newsman (KY) Espinoza V Hendricks D 3.30 3 9 9 Markus D. (CA) Talamo J Jones M 22.80 9 10 10 Little Heater (CA) Garcia M Mullins J 22.90 12 11 11 De Brief Me (CA) Baze M Puype M 7.60 5 13 12 Boo Too (KY) Rosario J Lewis C 3.40 11 SCR - Glorious Mon (CA)     - -

Pgm Win Place Show 6 $157.60 $76.60 $29.80 3 - $6.00 $3.60 8 - - $3.40   Exotic Payoffs $1.00 Exacta paid $496.30 (6-3) $1.00 Pick 3 paid $932.20 (2-3-6) $1.00 Pick 4 paid $15769.00 (3-2-3-6) $1.00 Pick 5 paid $47870.00 (8-3-2-3-6) $1.00 Place Pick All paid $3271.80 (9 OF 9) $1.00 Super High Five paid $0.00 (NO WINNING TICKE $1.00 Superfecta paid $83656.60 (6-3-8-5) $1.00 Trifecta paid $2585.40 (6-3-8) $2.00 Daily Double paid $522.80 (3-6) $2.00 Pick 6 paid $37620.80 (3-8-3-2-3-6)

Sunday, Santa Anita Race 9 — 4:30 pm post time

Maiden King conquers So. Cal maiden races

Maiden claiming $25,000, 6 furlongs, 3 yo’s and up

Possible overlays                             Morning line

#6 Jamieson                                         7/2
#7 Escaping the Storm                          4/1
#11 Launch the Bull                               3/1

On July 24, trainer Peter Miller brought #11 Launch the Bull back from a 10-month layoff and this gelding has had nothing but bad luck ever since. In all three of his races since, Launch the Bull had the lead and appeared to be headed to victory, but was nailed nearing the wire — one time by a horse that came again on the rail.

In his last five starts, Launch the Bull earned Beyer Speed Figures in the 73 to 89 range. So, considering that the median winning number for these $25,000 claiming horses is a 74, Launch the Bull figures to be tough to beat unless, of course, he’s simply a notorious hanger.

Another horse that could also run huge is #6 Jamieson. This 4-year-old stayed away from the track for more than a year, but almost won his June 6 comebacker. He showed good speed that day before tiring, however on Sept. 2 Jamieson dashed a first quarter mile that was some five lengths quicker than his June 6 race.

It was a colossal improvement, but Jamieson staggered to the wire that day, too, and lost by a nose while earning a 63 Beyer. Sooner or later he’ll put it all together and today just might be the day.

Finally, Escaping the Storm is eligible to improve as he’s also had a few races back after a 9-month rest.

I will put $300 to win on #11 Launch the Bull at 2/1 to 7/2, but just $150 at odds of 4/1 or higher. If Launch the Bull drifts above 7/2, then I will play $200 to win on #6 Jamieson at 2/1 to 7/2. 

Also, regardless of Launch the Bull’s odds, I’ll put $150 to win on Jamieson at 4/1 or higher.

Cal Cup Day audible

Today is Cal Cup Day at Santa Anita, so the card is filled with stakes race for California Breds.

That means no maiden races were scheduled. However, instead of posting nothing, I looked at the Juvenile and the Juvenile fillies, which are filled with lightly-raced horses that have done nothing but break their maidens in state bred races.

Many of these runners wouldn’t stand a chance in maiden special weight open company in Southern California. So these two 7-furlong stakes are almost like handicapping maiden races.

Saturday, Santa Anita Race 10 — 4:30 pm post time

Maiden King conquers the Cal Cup Juvenile

Cal Cup Juvenile, 7 furlongs, $100,000 purse

Possible overlays                 Morning line

#3 Really Uptown                       5/1
#5 Wolf Tail                              5/1 

It wouldn’t surprise me at all to see the Cal Cup Juvenile Filles race be run in a faster time than this one.

The top maiden special weight races for 2-year-old colts at 6-1/2 to 7 furlongs are won with Beyer Speed Figures in the low-to-mid 90’s, but the highest figure in this bunch is a lowly 76.

These colts appear to be rather ordinary, however #5 Wolf Tail looks like he has the right running style for the distance. Wolf Tail showed his hand on July 29 when he rallied from 4-1/2 lengths off the pace to nail Grace Upon Grace by a nose in the Graduation Stakes at 5-1/2 furlongs.

Wolf Tail shares the highest overall Beyer with #1 Warren’s Doc Gus, who is running in his second lifetime race.

One colt who might be a sleeper is #3 Really Uptown, who is coming off of a 4-month layoff. In the Spring, Really Uptown ran three Beyer Speed Figures in the 70s, so his natural growth may allow him to run in the 80’s today.

At 3/1 or higher, I will put $200 to win on both #3 Really Uptown and #5 Wolf Tail.

Saturday, Santa Anita Race 4 — 1:30 pm post time

Maiden King conquers the Cal Cup Juvenile Fillies

Cal Cup Juvenile Fillies, 7 furlongs, $100,00 purse

 

 

 Possible overlays                          Morning line

#2 Miss Georgie Girl                          2/1
#3 Camille C                                    9/2

Since I don’t have information on juvenile stakes races, I’m using Beyer Speed Figures for maiden special weight races to try to figure out how fast theses horses need to go to win this race.

The best Beyers for maiden juvenile fillies at 6-1/2 to 7 furlongs are in the low 80’s range. So a filly that can run in the mid-to-upper 80’s has a good shot in here, I believe.

Garrett Gomez rides #2 Miss Georgie Girl and she has the best last race Beyer and best Beyer overall. That’s a lethal one-two punch at 7 furlongs in the maiden ranks.

On Aug. 29 at 5-1/2 furlongs, Miss Georgie Girl pressed a hot pace where the quarter mile was run in 21.3 and the half was 44.4. In the stretch, she had plenty left as she won by a length and earned an 85 Beyer.

That race was run so fast that Miss Georgie Girl projects to be the quickest horse to the quarter mile of these runners. This filly may press the pace again, but she also gives Gomez the option of gunning straight for the lead and not looking back.

The best chance #3 Camille C has to win is to go right to the front. Luckily for her, the early fractions at 7 furlongs are going to be much slower than when she wired a field in the General Portion Stakes at 6 furlongs on Sept. 2.

On that day, Camille C’s dawdled through the second quarter mile and, if both fillies run their best today, she shouldn’t be able to keep up with Miss Georgie Girl.

I will put $200 to win on #2 Miss Georgie Girl at 2/1 and up.

Wednesday, Santa Anita Race 9 — 5 pm post time

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Today is opening day at Oak Tree and this ninth race looks like it should have a good bet or two. I’m still a bit behind in record keeping, so after this I will only be posting on the weekends while I catch up.

Possible overlays                   Morning line

#3 Red Door Drive                      7/2
#8 Good Newsman                      9/2
#9 Markus D.                            12/1
#10 Little Heater                       12/1
#11 De Brief Me                         8/1
#13 Boo Too                             4/1

Owner Arnold Zetcher transferred #3 Red Door Drive from trainer Ron McAnally to Bob Baffert since the colt’s last race one year ago. This colt tried nine times to win on the turf against better horses, but was often wide and never quite got the job done.

Red Door Drive, who last raced in September 2008, has the right running style for 7 furlongs and has a good shot to win despite the layoff — especially if there’s some betting action. Also, jockey Martin Pedroza jumped off #13 Boo Too, 4-to-1 on the morning line, to ride for Baffert.

Four other runners are also coming off recent layoffs. Trainer Dan Hendricks saddles #8 Good Newsman and Hendricks has done well in the past with this type of horse. I would only consider geldings #9 Markus D. and #11 De Brief Me if they are bet drastically below their morning lines of 12/1 and 8/1 respectively. But the Jeff Mullins 5-year-old #10 Little Heater could spring an upset at a good price.

I will bet $300 on #3 Red Door Drive at 2/1 to 7/2, but only $150 if the odds drift from 4/1 to 10/1. In the unlikely event that any of these horses are 2/1 to 7/2, I will bet $150 on the highest priced runner in that odds range among #8 Good Newsman, #9 Markus D., #10 Little Heater and #11 De Brief Me.

At odds of 4/1 and up, I’ll put $100 on #10 Little Heater.

Sharpening the saw for Oak Tree

In the book “The 7 Habits of Highly Effective People,” author Steven Covey uses an analogy of a lumberjack who has been sawing wood for several days. As the days go by, the sawing process dulls his blades and the lumberjack is becoming less and less productive.

Covey’s solution for the lumberjack to regain top production is to take time out to sharpen his saw, then get back to work. Although he probably never plays the ponies, Covey’s life lesson is also valuable to horseplayers.

On this blog, I depend mostly on information that I compile myself to come up with horses. Pulling data out of the Daily Racing Form then entering, reorganizing and filtering it in a computer is a time-consuming process. In fact, big-money horseplayer William Benter wrote that he and his crew spent five man-years getting ready for their assault on the Hong Kong races.

Since July 2008, I have been juggling researching and handicapping with wagering and writing. But I now find myself far behind in the information gathering part of this process. So before both my production and confidence slip too far, I need to stop.

To me, an important aspect of the psychology of betting is having the confidence to wager large amounts of money without the fear of going on long losing streaks. Horseplayers might have a winner that pays well, but profits will be limited if they have no confidence and bet just $5.

And the only way to get this kind of confidence is to gather large amounts of past data then analyze it correctly. So, with Fairplex running now, I will stop betting for a while and take the elevator down to my research lab, which is some 60 feet under the basement of the Wynn Hotel & Casino (not really).

I will try to finish up by the beginning of Santa Anita on Sept. 30, but it’s unlikely that I’ll meet that deadline. When I am done, I’m hoping that my saw will be sharp enough to cut down an Oak Tree.

It’s tough to beat Saratoga’s Travers Stakes

The first Travers I attended was with my father in 1982 when Runaway Groom beat the three horses that won the Triple Crown races — Gato Del Sol (Kentucky Derby), Aloma’s Ruler (Preakness Stakes) and Conquistador Cielo (Belmont Stakes).

The five-horse field was small, but the quality was high.

Conquistador Cielo, who was syndicated for $36 million before the Travers, was 2-to-5 that day and showed up in front bandages for the first time. Angel Codero, riding Aloma’s Ruler, pinned Conquistador Cielo on the bad rail in a two-horse speed duel.

The race caller didn’t recognize Runaway Groom until midstretch when  the Canadian invader was within two lengths of rolling by the two leaders. I was watching the race on the track apron and couldn’t believe my eyes.

Like everybody else, I believed Conquistador Cielo couldn’t lose.

Since that day, I’ve been to the Travers maybe 10 times and I can’t recall ever having the winner. But I keep coming back because, as I quickly found out in 1982, the atmosphere is tremendous.

This year, my results were no different, as I keyed Quality Road on top in the tri while putting both Charitable Man and Kensel on top in my exactas. Summer Bird, I deduced, was being overbet at 5-to-2 so I didn’t use him much.

The Saratoga paddock looked like the red carpet on Oscar night as the Travers field entered the walking ring.

Trainer Bill Mott, far right, saddled Hold Me Back to a second-place finish in the Travers. The horse was ridden by Julien Le Paroux

Rain was off-and-on all day, but things seemed to go smoothly regardless.

Something tells me that this isn't the first time these two have been to a racetrack.

Summer Bird's jockey Kent Desormeaux is interviewed by TV's Jeannine Edwards in the paddock before the Travers.

Summer Bird, left, follows Travers favorite Quality Road in the Saratoga walking ring. Ridden by Kent Desormeaux, Summer Bird won the race while Quality Road was third.

Saratoga race fans watch as Summer Bird takes the lead entering the stretch.

Warrior's Reward's jockey Calvin Borel makes a point while walking to the jockeys' room after the Travers Stakes.

Ramon Dominguez, who rode Charitable Man in the Travers, discusses the race immediately afterward.

D. Wayne Lukas, who always had a good eye for a filly, had several horses entered Travers Day, but none in the graded stakes races.

John Velazquez signs an autograph before riding Munnings in the Kings Bishop Stakes.

It looks like "The Edge" had another tremendous day. But, of course, it always does.

Desormeaux gets a police escort from the track to the jockeys' room after winning the Travers on Summer Bird

 

The Red Sox also won in the slop

The night before the Travers, I went to a rainy Red Sox game at Fenway Park.

Boston fans seated behind the Blue Jays dugout shout 9th-inning encouragement to the Sox

Red Sox fans honored the late Sen. Ted Kennedy

JD Drew gets interviewed after the Sox won 6-5.

Rain fell throughout the game and play was stopped for about an hour

Jonathan Papelbon saved the win after loading the bases.

The Pesky Pole -- the nickname for Fenway's right field foul pole -- is covered with fans' autographs.

Big Papi walked and came around to score the winning run

My brother Chris celebrates the Sox victory

Monmouth Park — a shore thing

On Aug. 20-22, I went to Atlantic City then Monmouth Park. 

I hadn’t been to Atlantic City since 1984 when I was 19 years old.  I remember having about $50 on me and I naively thought it would be enough spending money for the weekend.

We went to the beach for a couple of hours then it was onto the casino. After about 30 minutes of gambling my $50 was long gone. 

I’ve lived in Las Vegas since 1994 and wondered if Atlantic City had changed at all. It’s true that the Marina area ,where the Borgata Hotel is located, is as nice as anywhere in Las Vegas.

But the Boardwalk area seemed rundown to me. I saw many people sleeping on benches, almost all of the rolling chairs were idle, and a new construction project owner decided to stop building his casino.

I was impressed by Monmouth Park. It’s located about two miles from Long Branch Beach, which has many nice restaurants and shops, and a boardwalk that people use to walk, run and bike.

The track is spacious, has a nice simulcast room and the paddock area has three huge trees that shade the horses that use the walking ring.

Jay's Wish walks the paddock before Monmouth's second race on Aug. 22.

A handler ties the tongue of #5 Jay's Wish.

This runner seems to be enjoying a blast of cold water after running on a humid New Jersey day.

Jockey Jackie Davis, riding #7 Decue, can't hold off the rush of #8 Glory Tour and Victor Santiago on Aug. 21

Jockey Channing Hill heads to the scale after riding Meadow Blue

Jockey Jackie Davis, left, watches replay after getting nailed on front-runner #7 Decue

Jockey Jose Velez weighs out after riding French Transition on Aug. 22

Velez cleans up before heading back to the jockey's room

Monmouth Park may not run a meet with the quality of Saratoga, but the paddock landscaping is unquestionably second to none.

Atlantic City’s Boardwalk

Rolling chair operators didn't have much business on Atlantic City's famed Boardwalk when I visited on Aug. 21.

Lifeguards chat with beachgoers while a billboard asks gamblers to stay away from Bally's and Caesars until labor problems are settled.

The Goose isn't making anymore appearances on the mound for the Yankees, but you can catch him in Atlantic City.

Eastward Ho

With airlines competing for passengers, I was able to get a ticket from Las Vegas to Philadelphia for just $99. I figured why should I pay $175 for a direct flight to Boston when I can land in Philly, hit Atlantic City for a day then then drive up the Jersey Shore to Monmouth Park.

So, on Thursday that’s what I’m going to do. After Monmouth, I’ll loop around and possibly check out some Jersey Shore beach towns before catching a Saturday evening flight from Philadelphia to Boston, which was only $59.

On Aug. 29, I am hoping to be at Saratoga’s Travers Stakes.

Since I won’t be in Las Vegas, I won’t be blogging about maidens from Del Mar for a couple of weeks. But I will try to put up some photos of anything interesting I might come across.

Horse gets a bath in saddling area at Saratoga.

Results, Del Mar Sunday Race 6 — lost $400

Riding for trainer Jack Carava, Garrett Gomez got #12 Lunar Humor up in the final strides

Three horses were dropping into maiden claiming $25,000 for the first time after running decently against classier animals. And #12 Lunar Humor, #2 Al N Con and #4 Morton Owen finished 1-2-3.

 Trainer Jack Carava ran Lunar Humor against maiden special weight company until his fifth race. But when the gelding could finish no better than third in four straight races, Carava began descending the class ladder.

In the maiden claiming ranks last May and June, Lunar Humor ran low-to-mid 70 Beyer Speed Figures while finishing second two times – first for $80,000 claiming and then for $40,000. On July 24 something curious happened, as jockey Michael Baze merely breezed Lunar Humor in the stretch, which caused the Beyer to sink to an all-time low of 63.

I am sure that the low last-race Beyer kept some betting money off of Lunar Humor, a 3-to-1 shot, despite the presence of jockey Garrett Gomez, who has a large following. In a recent TVG video, Carava — who is the son of a horse trainer — said that he enjoys picking spots for his runners, strategizing and compared horse racing to poker.

So maybe, just maybe, Carava was “strategizing” by breezing his horse in the stretch, so it would pay a good price when he picked his spot on the drop.

This race began with #2 Al N Con, #8 She Made Me Do It and #11 Cafe Con Leche all battling head-to-head down the backstretch.  Al N Con, who had led in his last two races against $40,000 maiden claimers, shook clear by a length on the bend, as Cafe Con Leche kept chasing.

As the field swung into the lane, Morton Owen and Joel Rosario were making a move some eight paths wide with Lunar Humor also coming on just inside of him. They had to make up four lengths on Al N Con, 4/1, at the top of the stretch.

When Joe Talamo rode Al N Con past the sixteenth pole, he still had what appeared to be a safe 2-length lead. But Lunar Humor came with a late charge to get up with two jumps to go.

Despite being extremely wide, Morton Owen, at 9-to-2, only missed by two lengths.

I bet $400 on Morton Owen because he had lots of positive long-term betting angles going for him. This gelding was 3-to-1 on the morning line, but was cold on the board throughout the betting period and ended up at 9-to-2.

To watch a replay of this race, go to www.calracing.com.

PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN 1 1 Deltamax (FL) Gryder A Cerin V 30.20 11 2 2 Al N Con (CA) Talamo J Rosales R 4.10 2 3 3 Joys Last One (CA) Stra K Martinez S 65.30 10 4 4 Morton Owen (KY) Rosario J Mitchell M 4.50 3 5 5 Spartan Jet (KY) Pedroza M Lopez J 41.60 7 6 6 Smokenomore (CA) Garcia M Spawr W 6.50 4 7 7 Warren’s Juan (CA) Santiago Reyes C Lewis C 37.10 8 8 8 She Made Me Do It (CA) Blanc B Bacorn H 16.80 12 9 9 Secret Lure (CA) Valdivia, Jr. J Puype M 21.80 6 10 10 Yrunvs M. B. (CA) Valdez F Becerra R 27.30 9 11 11 Cafe Con Leche (KY) Quinonez A Miller P 3.70 5 12 12 Lunar Humor (KY) Gomez G Carava J 3.20 1 SCR - Ol’dogtown (CA) Scott J Bellasis R - - SCR - Objectified (CA) Baze T West T - -

Pgm Win Place Show 12 $8.40 $4.40 $3.20 2 - $5.20 $3.60 4 - - $3.60   Exotic Payoffs $1.00 Exacta paid $17.30 (12-2) $1.00 Pick 3 paid $126.60 (7-1-12) $1.00 Superfecta paid $264.80 (12-2-4-6) $1.00 Trifecta paid $40.90 (12-2-4) $2.00 Daily Double paid $51.20 (1-12) $2.00 Quinella paid $17.20 (2-12)

Results, Del Mar Sunday Race 4 — lost $300

Joel Rosario, riding #7 It Tiz, inherited the lead and never gave it up.

Although I didn’t have the winner, at least I was right about one thing in this race. And that was that #6 Imperatriz was clearly a false favorite.

Sure, in her last start on July 23 Imperatriz showed good speed. But she was loose on the lead and, although she had an easy trip, she didn’t come close to the median winning Beyer Speed Figure for this class of fillies. Still on Sunday, the public saw the early foot in her past performance line and bet her down to 5-to-2.

In the race, debuter #1 Linda Surprise bounced out of the gate and dueled with Imperatriz all the way down the backside. These two were 6 lengths ahead of the next pair of horses – #7 It Tiz and #3 Seriously.

By the top of the stretch, both Imperatriz and Linda Surprise were gasping for air and #7 It Tiz was ready to pounce. It Tiz inherited the lead and held off Seriously, as It Tiz’ jockey Joel Rosario did a nice job of race riding by pinning Seriously against the rail late.

I bet $150 on first-time starters #2 Dixie Sandals at 16/1 and #5 Vivacious Anna at 15/1. 

To watch a replay of this race, go to www.calracing.com.

PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN 1 1 Linda Surprise (KY) Baze T Cho M 16.40 7 2 2 Dixie’s Sandals (KY) Nakatani C Harty E 16.10 3 3 3 Seriously (KY) Espinoza V Baffert B 2.20 2 4 4 Star of Sapphire (KY) Smith M Biancone P 3.20 4 5 5 Vivacious Anna (KY) Quinonez A O’Neill D 15.10 6 6 6 Imperatriz (KY) Berrio O Avila A 2.60 5 7 7 It Tiz (KY) Rosario J Glatt M 4.50 1

Pgm Win Place Show 7 $11.00 $5.40 $3.60 3 - $4.20 $2.80 2 - - $5.20   Exotic Payoffs $1.00 Exacta paid $18.70 (7-3) $1.00 Pick 3 paid $84.30 (3-4-7) $1.00 Trifecta paid $144.40 (7-3-2) $2.00 Daily Double paid $32.40 (4-7) $2.00 Quinella paid $15.60 (3-7)

Results, Del Mar Saturday Race 7 — lost $500

Newly-inducted Hall-of-Famer Bob Baffert broke #12 Marcello's maiden on Saturday.

It really made sense for the Bob Baffert-trained #12 Marcello to win this race. In his only lifetime start on July 25, Marcello lagged at the back of the back then came with a strong rally at 5-1/2 furlongs to get fourth.

Click photo for view of the finish

The winner that day, Tiny Woods, was another colt out of the Baffert barn who led wire-to-wire. Marcello’s running style didn’t fit at that short sprint distance, but it was perfect for Saturday’s 6-1/2 furlongs.

In the race, Marcello broke alertly then settled in fourth place, as #2 Our Crazy Monkey led down the backstretch. Jockey Garrett Gomez – who was likely the reason Marcello’s post time odds were crushed to 1-to-2 — began his wide move as the horses approached the turn.

Our Crazy Monkey gave the lead up quickly and had no chance of staying with Marcello. But #9 Pulsion, another second-timer, had lots of fight in him and really showed up ready to run.

Pulsion, a 9-to-1 shot who was adding blinkers for trainer Patrick Biancone, closed into Marcello’s 2-length lead with every stride as the wire approached. But Marcello hung on by a nose in a dramatic photo finish.

I liked Marcello but his short price forced me to look elsewhere. So, I spread $500 out over three first timers. #3 Poker Trick, at 14/1, #6 Erbeia, 11/1, and #10 We Will Rock, 12/1. However, none of them fired.

To watch a replay of this race, go to www.calracing.com.

PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN 2 1 Our Crazy Monkey (NY) Pedroza M O’Neill D 18.90 3 3 2 Poker Trick (FL) Baze T O’Neill D 14.30 10 1 3 Viva Macho (FL) Baze M Cho M 44.10 6 4 4 Mr. Saturdaynight (KY) Talamo J Sadler J 11.70 7 5 5 Quietly Waiting (KY) Garcia M Knapp S 44.60 11 6 6 Erbeia (KY) Nakatani C Mandella R 11.10 8 7 7 Nuggets Please (NM) Kaenel K Leonard R 51.90 9 8 8 Came Aboard (KY) Quinonez A Gonzalez J 30.80 4 9 9 Pulsion (FL) Smith M Biancone P 9.50 2 10 10 We Will Rock (KY) Rosario J O’Neill D 12.90 5 12 11 Marcello (KY) Gomez G Baffert B 0.50 1 SCR - Retired American (MD)     - - SCR - Undaunted Rally (KY)     - -

Pgm Win Place Show 12 $3.00 $2.60 $2.20 9 - $6.60 $4.60 2 - - $5.60   Exotic Payoffs $1.00 Exacta paid $9.00 (12-9) $1.00 Pick 3 paid $152.40 (1-1-12) $1.00 Superfecta paid $1255.90 (12-9-2-8) $1.00 Trifecta paid $136.00 (12-9-2) $2.00 Daily Double paid $41.40 (1-12) $2.00 Quinella paid $14.60 (9-12)