Taking time off to catch up on records

Before I started this blog in June 2008, I spent about six months compiling statistics on all aspects of Southern California maiden sprint races. From June 2008 to April 2009, I posted picks here in nine of 11 months, earning  a profit in eight months. As of April 30, 2009, my total winnings were $21,685.

But, because I also work 40-50 hours a week at a Las Vegas race & sports book, it is difficult to find the time to both do the blog and keep up with the research necessary to keep my finger on the pulse of Southern California racing. The angles that worked 10 months ago may or may not be working today. And if they are working, the odds ranges I need might have drastically changed.

So, as 2009 has gone by, the info I compile has become more and more outdated. For example, the statistics I need to evaluate trainer angles are  missing the last four months. And that’s not too bad when compared to the year’s worth of data I need to enter for my pace model, which is crucial for 6-1/2 and 7-furlong races.

And because I’m using old information, my winning has turned to losing. In fact, from May 2009 until today, I posted losses in five of six months and am down a total of $7,225 for that period.

Really, right now there is no way I can catch up with the record keeping while continuing to do the blog and bet the horses. Also, I am now taking a mandatory three-hour class for work which includes three hours of homework a week. The class may not sound like much, but with running weekly errands, tracking stocks and bonds, sleeping and going to the gym, I had nowhere to fit it in.

In the future, it looks like I’ll need to select certain meets to play, such as Santa Anita, Del Mar and Oak Tree while using the other months to evaluate and compile information. 

So, I am going to stop on the blog for a few months until I am up to date on everything, which — if all goes well — should be sometime in early 2010.

Results, Santa Anita Sunday Race 1 — lost $300

Joel Rosario harnessed Paddy's Magic's speed then let him loose in the stretch

To me, it looked like #1 Paddy’s Magic could have taken a maiden special weight race rather than the $32,000 maiden claimer that he won.

Not only did this gelding, who was the 8-to-5 favorite, win by a wide margin, but he also broke slowly and made up four lengths on the backstretch in the blink of an eye. On Aug. 23, Paddy’s Magic had a bad trip when running a 65 Beyer Speed Figure, but I did not see five lengths worth of trouble.

Breaking next to Paddy’s Magic in this race was #2 Learn the Sport, who ran a 76 Beyer on Sept. 4. Coming into the race, I liked Learn the Sport because he had the right running style for 6-1/2 furlongs, he had the top last race Beyer and he was 4-to-1.

But it wasn’t Learn the Sport’s day, as jockey Reyes Santiago pushed him along in the stretch without response. I also liked two second timers in here but neither of them landed in the odds zone. 

In the end, I bet $300 on #2 Learn the Sport.

To watch a replay of this race, go to www.calracing.com.

PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN 1 1 Paddy’s Magic (KY) Rosario J Zucker H 1.60 1 2 2 Learn the Sport (KY) Santiago Reyes C Abrams B 4.20 5 3 3 Bernsie’s Baby (CA) Atkinson P Van Berg J 102.30 8 4 4 Raja (CA) Arambula P Martinez S 171.40 9 5 5 Nanni the Teaser (KY) Delgadillo A Harty E 12.80 7 6 6 Hawk Star (CA) Valdez F Fama D 48.70 3 7 7 Big Mikie M. (CA) Baze M Eurton P 5.70 6 8 8 Boo Too (KY) Talamo J Periban J 13.00 4 9 9 Remember Mike (KY) Flores D Conlon M 2.40 2

Pgm Win Place Show 1 $5.20 $2.80 $2.60 9 - $4.00 $3.60 6 - - $15.80   Exotic Payoffs $1.00 Exacta paid $11.00 (1-9) $1.00 Superfecta paid $1433.90 (1-9-6-8)

Results, Santa Anita Saturday Race 10 — lost $500

Jockey Joe Talamo took #7 Get My Fix off the pace then rolled to victory in the stretch

 Usually, when Bob Baffert starts two horses in a race, one or both of them run huge.

In this event, Baffert saddled both #4 The Program, 16-to-1, and #5 Mr Charlie, 4-to-1. But, surprisingly, both broke slowly and neither one fired.

The winner, #7 Get My Fix trained by Brian Koriner, was one of the most likely winners when looking at the past performances. This 2-year-old had run a 79 Beyer Speed Figure in his second lifetime start on Aug. 8, which is significant because the median Beyer Speed Figure for this class is an 80. In his last race, Get My Fix rated behind the leaders and finished up well, which is the preferred running style for 6-1/2 furlongs.

Others who looked like they had a shot were #9 Frisco Kid, a first-time starter who went off at 13-to-1, and #1 The Skinny Man, a 7-to-2 shot. Neither ran well, although The Skinny Man showed speed until the stretch.

In the race, Get My Fix and jockey Joe Talamo mowed down pace setter #10 El Gran Matador while outrunning another late runner, #6 Domonation. In my betting scenario, I intended to bet $200 on Get My Fix if his odds were 5-to-2 or better. But the bet was live only if both #4 The Program and #9 Frisco Kid were 8-to-1 and #5 Mr Charlie was less than 4-to-1.

As the horses loaded into the gate, I bet The Program at 16/1 and Frisco Kid at 13/1. Then Mr Charlie’s odds moved up from 7/2 to 4/1, so I ended up betting him instead of Get My Fix. In all, I wagered $500.

To watch a replay of this race, go to www.calracing.com.

PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN 1 1 The Skinny Man (KY) Bejarano R O’Neill D 3.90 9 2 2 Kuro (KY) Espinoza V Machowsky M 15.40 6 3 3 Mister Do It (KY) Valdivia, Jr. J Hendricks D 53.90 10 4 4 The Program (KY) Garcia M Baffert B 16.00 5 5 5 Mr Charlie (KY) Smith M Baffert B 4.00 8 6 6 Domonation (KY) Rosario J Sadler J 8.40 2 7 7 Get My Fix (KY) Talamo J Koriner B 2.80 1 8 8 Brady Blue Eyes (KY) Borel C Glatt M 4.20 4 9 9 Frisco Kid (FL) Solis A Headley B 13.60 7 10 10 El Gran Matador (NY) Santiago Reyes C Becerra R 53.70 3

Pgm Win Place Show 7 $7.60 $4.40 $3.60 6 - $9.40 $6.80 10 - - $16.40   Exotic Payoffs $1.00 Exacta paid $39.30 (7-6) $1.00 Pick 3 paid $91.20 (5-1-7) $1.00 Pick 4 paid $1679.50 (8-2/5-1-7) $1.00 Pick 5 paid $3351.10 (1/6/9-8-2/5-1-7) $1.00 Place Pick All paid $583.30 (10 OF 10) $1.00 Super High Five paid $0.00 (NO WINNING TICKE $1.00 Superfecta paid $9445.30 (7-6-10-8) $1.00 Trifecta paid $1372.40 (7-6-10) $2.00 Daily Double paid $84.40 (1-7) $2.00 Pick 6 paid $11781.60 (10-1/6/9-8-2/5-1-7) $2.00 Pick 6 paid $89.60 (10-1/6/9-8-2/5-1-7)

Results, Santa Anita Saturday Race 5 — lost $450

Trainer Bob Baffert gave a leg up to jockey Rafael Bejarano on 4-to-5 shot Excellent News

Almost all of Bob Baffert’s horses are bred to win stakes races, so they can dominate a field of maiden special weight sprinters at any moment.

Rafael Bejarano rode #10 Excellent News in her third lifetime race after she spun an 82 Beyer Speed Figure in her second race on Aug. 29. Since the median winning Beyer Speed Figure for this race was just an 80, Excellent News was a standout – especially considering that the next highest Beyer was just a 69.

There were no secrets with this filly. She had the top Beyer, a top jockey and a top trainer. It was easy to see her outstanding qualifications and it was no surprise that the public knocked Excellent News’ odds to 4-to-5.

But with odds this low, horses need to win some 70-to-80 percent of the time to make a bet worthwhile. And all of us bettors are all dealing with incomplete information, so it’s tough to find angles that work seven out of 10 times.

A couple of first timers in this race — #4 Stunning Ally and #7 Carrie Rose – had strong long-term angles working for them. And I also took a chance on second-time starter #5 Evening Jewel.

However, Excellent News won like a 4-to-5 shot should win.

At the window, I wagered $200 on Stunning Ally at 9/1, $100 on Evening Jewel at 5/1 and $150 on Carrie Rose at 8/1.

To watch a replay of this race, go to www.calracing.com.

PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN 1 1 Dance the Dance (CA) Talamo J Hofmans D 37.50 6 2 2 Shesoprovocative (CA) Espinoza V Becerra R 13.20 5 3 3 Pocatello Wild Kat (CA) Baze M Fanning J 63.20 8 4 4 Stunning Ally (CA) Quinonez A Canani J 9.50 4 5 5 Evening Jewel (CA) Smith M Cassidy J 5.40 2 6 6 Giveme Onereason (CA) Santiago Reyes C Solis W 35.10 3 7 7 Carrie Rose (CA) Gomez G Mitchell M 8.30 9 8 8 Tiz Cee’s Ballet (CA) Martin G Locke T 57.40 10 9 9 High Five Gal (CA) Rosario J O’Neill D 7.00 7 10 10 Excellent News (CA) Bejarano R Baffert B 0.80 1

Pgm Win Place Show 10 $3.60 $2.40 $2.40 5 - $4.60 $4.20 6 - - $8.60   Exotic Payoffs $1.00 Exacta paid $8.80 (10-5) $1.00

Sunday, Santa Anita Race 1 — 12:30 pm post time

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden claiming $32,000, 6-1/2 furlongs

Possible overlays                     Morning line

#2 Learn the Sport                        7/2
#5 Nanni the Teaser                       8/1
#8 Boo Too                                   8/1
#9 Remember Mike                         2/1

A 78 Beyer Speed Figure is the median winning number for this class and the only runner close to that is #2 Learn the Sport. This Barry Abrams-trained runner broke slowly in his last at 6 furlongs but came with a strong rail-hugging run to earn a 76 Beyer. He was recently gelded, he should relish the extra half furlong and looks tough.

Trainer Jorge Periban claimed #8 Boo Too on Sept. 30 from Craig Lewis for $22,500 and steps him up the class ladder. Boo Too ran very well on Sept. 10 at Fairplex Park, losing to the a good maiden claimer named Morton Owen. However, something went very wrong in his last as Boo Too finished eleventh. To compete with these, Boo Too will need to regain his best form and then some. One big drawback is that Periban is 0-for-24 when running back first after the claim, according to the Daily Racing Form.

Finally, two second time starters are dropping in class. Both #5 Nanni the Teaser and #9 Remember Mike ran decently in their debuts and have been working out well. If the money shows up, I’m interested.

Betting Scenarios: I will put $300 to win on #2 Learn the Sport at odds of 5/2 to 7/1 only. If Learn the Sport goes off at 8/1 or better, then my wager drops to $100.

Also, I will put $150 to win on #9 Remember Mike at 5/2 to 7/1 only. If that colt falls out of the betting range, then I want $100 to win on #5 Nanni the Teaser at 5/2 to 7/1 instead.

Saturday, Santa Anita Race 10 — 5 pm post time

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden Special Weight, 2-year-olds, 6-1/2 furlongs

Possible overlays                  Morning line

#1 The Skinny Man                       3/1
#4 The Program                            12/1
#5 Mr Charlie                                6/1
#7 Get My Fix                               5/2
#9 Frisco Kid                                 8/1

On Aug. 29, co-favorites #1 The Skinny Man raced against #7 Get My Fix and only a whisker separated the two for second place. Both colts have decent early speed, they’ve both run in the neighborhood of the 80 median winning Beyer Speed Figure for this class, and they’re learning how to rate.

Either of them can win, but it won’t be easy.

Although neither half of the uncoupled Bob Baffert entry came close to winning their debut, I expect either #4 The Program or #5 Mr Charlie to run very well today. I have seen Baffert work his magic too many times to ignore his colts even when the morning line maker seems to be disregarding them. 

The Program appears to have been bought for $310,000 while Mr Charlie looks like a $725,000 purchase. Although these purchase prices are published in the Daily Racing Form, sometimes nobody really paid that much for the horse and the published sale price is the amount the animal was bought back for when the sale’s reserve price was not met.  Anyway, Baffert doesn’t train many mules and these two have been working out well. So I expect big things.

In The Program’s last race, he came out of the gate very slowly and while watching the replay it was difficult to tell if jockey Mike Smith intentionally pulled him to the back. But one thing I am sure of is that Smith certainly wasn’t hustling The Program down the backstretch.

And another thing that makes me curious about The Program is that, according to my records, Baffert and The Program’s jockey Martin Garcia won with five first-time starters from just 12 rides for a return of $3.31 for every $1 wagered. These Baffert/Garcia firsters were all in 2006-07, so they happened too long ago to be included in the DRF’s statistics, which show that the Baffert/Garcia team are 0-for-3 overall since 2008.

I know The Program is not running in his debut, but my point is that Garcia might be one of Baffet’s money riders. All I am saying is beware.

As for Mr Charlie, he seemed to be full of run in his Sept. 7 race. As it began, Mr Charlie went to the lead with hardly any encouragement from jockey Joe Talamo. However, right next to Talamo that day was Indian Firewater, who is another Baffert runner, and Indian Firewater exploded in the stretch while Mr Charlie faded.

But I’m sure that was not Mr Charlie’s best run.

OK, moving on. The last promising horse is #9 Frisco Kid. The only drawback with him is that trainer Bruce Headley is 0-for-11 with debuting MSW juveniles over the last five years, according to “A Closer Look” in the DRF. Otherwise, Frisco Kid is the prototype of what a winning debuter looks like.

And don’t ask me why, but a higher percentage of first timers win at 6-1/2 furlongs than at any other distance.

At odds of 7/2 to 19/1, I will bet $200 to win on #9 Frisco Kid. Also, I’ll put $150 on #4 The Program at 5/1 or better and $150 on #5 Mr Charlie at 4/1 or more. However, if The Program and Frisco Kid both go off at odds of 8/1 or higher and Mr Charlie is less than 4/1, then I will also put $200 on #7 Get My Fix at 5/2 or more.

Saturday, Santa Anita Race 5 — 2:30 pm post time

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden Special Weight, 6 furlongs, 2-yo fillies

Possible overlays                       Morning line

#1 Dance the Dance                           15/1
#4 Stunning Ally                                  6/1
#5 Evening Jewel                                 6/1
#7 Carrie Rose                                     8/1

The obvious favorite of this bunch is #10 Excellent News, who rang up an 82 Beyer Speed Figure in her last race on Aug. 29 while finishing second to Miss Georgie Girl. Since Excellent News has already ran a speed figure that’s better than the median winning number of 80, she is the most likely winner. However, the Baffert brand name will ensure she’s way overbet.

Therefore, I’m looking toward either a couple of first time starters or a filly making her second lifetime run to get the job done at a price.

Over the past year or so, trainer Mike Mitchell has been firing well with his young horses when he sends them out in their debuts.  And it doesn’t hurt that Garrett Gomez will be aboard #7 Carrie Rose, especially when noting that the Gomez-Mitchell tandem has produced 27 winners from their last 82 runners. A $1 bet on all of them yielded $1.31, according to the Daily Racing Form.

James Cassidy saddles #5 Evening Jewel who was bet to 9/2 in her first lifetime race on Aug. 23. On that day, Evening Jewel ran evenly in the middle of the pack, however when I watched the replay it looked to me like  jockey David Flores was taking it easy on her. This filly has some nice workouts and she fits the profile of a winning second-time starter.

Breaking just inside of Evening Jewel will be #4 Stunning Ally, who is another debuter. Julio Canani has this daughter of In Excess working out well and she looks like a bet if the price is right.

Finally, owners Rod and Lorraine Rodriguez have had much success winning with debut horses over the years, but I am not that big of a fan of their filly, #1 Dance the Dance. At the right price, though, a small bet based on the connections may be in order.

I will wager $200 on #7 Carrie Rose from 3/1 to 9/1, but just $100 at 10/1 and up. Also, I will take  $200 on #5 Evening Jewel at 5/2 to 9/1 and $100 at 10/1 or higher. Finally, if #4 Stunning Ally is 7/2 to 9/1, I want $150 to win on her, but I’ll take $200 to win at 10/1 to 19/1.

Results, Santa Anita Sunday Race 9 — lost $300

Trainer Carl O'Callaghan, who won with 9/1 shot Brian the Brave, regularly performs Irish music at L.A. bars

In July, trainer Carl O’Callaghan sent #12 Brian the Brave to be gelded and when the 3-year-old came back to the races on Sept. 4, the new gelding was a faster, more valuable animal.

In that first comeback race, Brian the Brave ran a 71 Beyer Speed Figure while four paths wide on the turn, which was probably his fastest race up until that point.  In the interim, Brian the Brave had two fast workouts which set him up well for Sunday when he broke his maiden at 9-to-1 by running down #11 Launch the Bull.

And Launch the Bull was no slouch. Coming into the race, Launch the Bull exceeded the median Beyer Speed Figure needed to win at this class in his last three starts.

All of Launch the Bull’s three losses were against higher-priced maiden claimers. The one big knock on Launch the Bull, though, is that this Peter Miller-trainee tires late and seems to always get caught at the wire.

Sunday was no different.

The race began with speed ball #6 Jamieson going straight to the front on the backstretch. Both Launch the Bull and Brian the Brave were stalking the pace from about a length behind. And midway on the turn, both surged to the lead as a team.

At the top of the lane, Launch the Bull pulled away from Brian the Brave by a length, but just like in his past races, Launch the Bull couldn’t hold the lead and Brian the Brave nailed him at the wire.

The win was just the third of the year for trainer Carl O’Callaghan, who moonlights by performing Irish music in Los Angeles and San Diego area bars. By clicking on his name, you can check his music website or here for his stable site.

I bet $300 on Launch the Bull at 2/1.

To watch a replay of this race, go to www.calracing.com.

PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN 1 1 Adebayor (KY) Garcia M O’Neill D 4.20 5 3 2 Heisman U (KY) Rivera C Stute G 28.70 6 4 3 Fun in the Park (CA) Arambula P Periban J 103.50 9 6 4 Jamieson (CA) Baze T Zucker H 3.50 8 7 5 Escaping the Storm (FL) Bejarano R Hess, Jr. R 4.20 3 9 6 Ol’dogtown (CA) Scott J Bellasis R 23.70 7 10 7 Eminent Honor (KY) Iniguez S Fernandez V 68.90 10 11 8 Launch the Bull (KY) Santiago Reyes C Miller P 2.00 2 12 9 Brian the Brave (KY) Quinonez A O’Callaghan C 9.40 1 13 10 Father Grumpy (CA) Rosario J Gutierrez J 15.10 4 SCR - Halo’s Limit (KY) Olivarez M Jimenez J - - SCR - Louie Tre (FL)     - - SCR - Freetoagoodhome (CA) Valdez F Wicker L - - SCR - Tumbling Dice Man (CA) Atkinson P Pender M - -

Pgm Win Place Show 12 $20.80 $8.00 $6.20 11 - $3.40 $2.80 7 - - $2.80   Exotic Payoffs $1.00 Consolation Pick 3 paid $7.10 (10-2-7/8)

Cal Cup Day — lost $600

Trainer Doug O'Neill sadded both halves of the Juvenile Stakes exacta

Saturday was California Cup Day, so no maiden races were slated.

I played the 2-year-old stakes races, which were both run at 7 furlongs, but the closest I got was when #5 Wolf Tail came charging late for second place in the Juvenile. Doug O’Neill not only trained Wolf Tail, a 6/1 shot, but he also saddled the winner, Bench the Judge, at 5/1.

In the Juvenile Fillies, I liked #2 Miss Georgie Girl, who did absolutely nothing. Garrett Gomez was urging her on in the stretch, but Miss Georgie Girl’s tank was empty as she faded to the back of the pack.

PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN 1 1 Take a Peak (CA) Nakatani C Hollendorfer J 23.30 6 2 2 Miss Georgie Girl (CA) Gomez G Walsh K 2.80 8 3 3 Camille C (CA) Bejarano R Polanco M 3.50 2 4 4 Dinnr With Nikki C (CA) Santiago Reyes C Sherlock G 55.20 5 5 5 Puritan Baker (CA) Rosario J Lenzini M 24.60 4 6 6 Whispering Hush (CA) Solis A Kruljac J 3.60 3 7 7 U Turn Me Crazy (CA) Gryder A Koriner B 26.10 7 8 8 La Nez (CA) Smith M Kruljac J 2.20 1 9 9 Moon Quist Rose (CA) Baze R Morey W 23.80 9

Pgm Win Place Show 8 $6.40 $3.60 $2.40 3 - $4.60 $3.00 6 - - $2.80 PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN 1 1 Warren’s Doc Gus (CA) Bejarano R Gutierrez J 7.80 7 2 2 Swiss Exploit (CA) Baze M Harrington M 42.00 6 3 3 Really Uptown (CA) Garcia M Harrington M 7.60 4 5 4 Wolf Tail (CA) Rosario J O’Neill D 6.30 2 6 5 Swiss Arrogant (CA) Gomez G Carava J 10.10 9 7 6 Runaway Bandido (CA) Quinonez A Becerra R 2.80 3 8 7 Tribal Face (CA) Baze T Knapp S 2.70 5 9 8 Bench the Judge (KY) Santiago Reyes C O’Neill D 5.90 1 10 9 Chocolate Marini (CA) Valdivia, Jr. J Hendricks D 31.90 8 SCR - Cat Calloway (CA)     - - Pgm Win Place Show 9 $13.80 $6.40 $3.40 5 - $8.00 $4.60 7 - - $3.00   Exotic Payoffs $1.00 Consolation Pick 3 paid $35.20 (3-4-9)     Exotic Payoffs $1.00 Exacta paid $12.70 (8-3) $1.00 Pick 3 paid $83.50 (1-2-8) $

Results, Santa Anita Wednesday Race 9 — lost $550

Jockey Kyle Kaenel rocked the tote board to the tune of $157 with Spartan Jet

At 77-to-1, it should come as no surprise that Spartan Jet’s only two past performance lines were ugly. In both races, he broke slowly, made no move on the turn and had no rally in the stretch. 

But on Wednesday, Spartan Jet broke alertly and virtually led this 12-horse field wire-to-wire, lighting up the toteboard with a $157.60 win payoff.

Before being awarded the official victory, however, owner-trainer Juan Lopez had to sweat out a claim of foul by jockey Martin Pedroza. Pedroza, who ironically rode Spartan Jet in his first two starts, claimed that his mount Red Door Drive was impeded when rider Kyle Kaenel allowed Spartan Jet to swerve out approaching midstretch.

Red Door Drive, trained by Bob Baffert, had last raced in September 2008 and nine of his 10 lifetime races were on the turf. In Wednesday’s race, Red Door Drive moved from last place on the turn to a good stalking position about two lengths away from the leaders.

As the field moved into the stretch, Pedroza tried to take Red Door Drive outside of Spartan Jet, but that horse unexpectedly swerved suddenly, so Pedroza went inside. Red Door Drive had plenty of time to pass Spartan Jet but — perhaps because he was inside of him — Red Door Drive never went by and lost by a head.

At 7/2, I bet $300 on Red Door Drive, wagered $150 more on #8 Good Newsman at 3/1 and another $100 on 23-to-1 shot #10 Little Heater.

To watch a replay of this race, go to www.calracing.com.

PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN 1 1 Irish Weis Man (CA) Quinonez A Abrams B 37.10 7 2 2 Panda (CA) Santiago Reyes C Van Berg J 12.70 6 3 3 Red Door Drive (KY) Pedroza M Baffert B 3.80 2 4 4 Whizer (CA) Valdez F Bradvica L 28.80 10 5 5 Trueno (CA) Vergara O Capitaine N 16.50 4 6 6 Spartan Jet (KY) Delgadillo A Lopez J 77.80 1 7 7 Smokenomore (CA) Migliore R Spawr W 6.90 8 8 8 Good Newsman (KY) Espinoza V Hendricks D 3.30 3 9 9 Markus D. (CA) Talamo J Jones M 22.80 9 10 10 Little Heater (CA) Garcia M Mullins J 22.90 12 11 11 De Brief Me (CA) Baze M Puype M 7.60 5 13 12 Boo Too (KY) Rosario J Lewis C 3.40 11 SCR - Glorious Mon (CA)     - -

Pgm Win Place Show 6 $157.60 $76.60 $29.80 3 - $6.00 $3.60 8 - - $3.40   Exotic Payoffs $1.00 Exacta paid $496.30 (6-3) $1.00 Pick 3 paid $932.20 (2-3-6) $1.00 Pick 4 paid $15769.00 (3-2-3-6) $1.00 Pick 5 paid $47870.00 (8-3-2-3-6) $1.00 Place Pick All paid $3271.80 (9 OF 9) $1.00 Super High Five paid $0.00 (NO WINNING TICKE $1.00 Superfecta paid $83656.60 (6-3-8-5) $1.00 Trifecta paid $2585.40 (6-3-8) $2.00 Daily Double paid $522.80 (3-6) $2.00 Pick 6 paid $37620.80 (3-8-3-2-3-6)

Sunday, Santa Anita Race 9 — 4:30 pm post time

Maiden King conquers So. Cal maiden races

Maiden claiming $25,000, 6 furlongs, 3 yo’s and up

Possible overlays                             Morning line

#6 Jamieson                                         7/2
#7 Escaping the Storm                          4/1
#11 Launch the Bull                               3/1

On July 24, trainer Peter Miller brought #11 Launch the Bull back from a 10-month layoff and this gelding has had nothing but bad luck ever since. In all three of his races since, Launch the Bull had the lead and appeared to be headed to victory, but was nailed nearing the wire — one time by a horse that came again on the rail.

In his last five starts, Launch the Bull earned Beyer Speed Figures in the 73 to 89 range. So, considering that the median winning number for these $25,000 claiming horses is a 74, Launch the Bull figures to be tough to beat unless, of course, he’s simply a notorious hanger.

Another horse that could also run huge is #6 Jamieson. This 4-year-old stayed away from the track for more than a year, but almost won his June 6 comebacker. He showed good speed that day before tiring, however on Sept. 2 Jamieson dashed a first quarter mile that was some five lengths quicker than his June 6 race.

It was a colossal improvement, but Jamieson staggered to the wire that day, too, and lost by a nose while earning a 63 Beyer. Sooner or later he’ll put it all together and today just might be the day.

Finally, Escaping the Storm is eligible to improve as he’s also had a few races back after a 9-month rest.

I will put $300 to win on #11 Launch the Bull at 2/1 to 7/2, but just $150 at odds of 4/1 or higher. If Launch the Bull drifts above 7/2, then I will play $200 to win on #6 Jamieson at 2/1 to 7/2. 

Also, regardless of Launch the Bull’s odds, I’ll put $150 to win on Jamieson at 4/1 or higher.

Cal Cup Day audible

Today is Cal Cup Day at Santa Anita, so the card is filled with stakes race for California Breds.

That means no maiden races were scheduled. However, instead of posting nothing, I looked at the Juvenile and the Juvenile fillies, which are filled with lightly-raced horses that have done nothing but break their maidens in state bred races.

Many of these runners wouldn’t stand a chance in maiden special weight open company in Southern California. So these two 7-furlong stakes are almost like handicapping maiden races.

Saturday, Santa Anita Race 10 — 4:30 pm post time

Maiden King conquers the Cal Cup Juvenile

Cal Cup Juvenile, 7 furlongs, $100,000 purse

Possible overlays                 Morning line

#3 Really Uptown                       5/1
#5 Wolf Tail                              5/1 

It wouldn’t surprise me at all to see the Cal Cup Juvenile Filles race be run in a faster time than this one.

The top maiden special weight races for 2-year-old colts at 6-1/2 to 7 furlongs are won with Beyer Speed Figures in the low-to-mid 90’s, but the highest figure in this bunch is a lowly 76.

These colts appear to be rather ordinary, however #5 Wolf Tail looks like he has the right running style for the distance. Wolf Tail showed his hand on July 29 when he rallied from 4-1/2 lengths off the pace to nail Grace Upon Grace by a nose in the Graduation Stakes at 5-1/2 furlongs.

Wolf Tail shares the highest overall Beyer with #1 Warren’s Doc Gus, who is running in his second lifetime race.

One colt who might be a sleeper is #3 Really Uptown, who is coming off of a 4-month layoff. In the Spring, Really Uptown ran three Beyer Speed Figures in the 70s, so his natural growth may allow him to run in the 80’s today.

At 3/1 or higher, I will put $200 to win on both #3 Really Uptown and #5 Wolf Tail.

Saturday, Santa Anita Race 4 — 1:30 pm post time

Maiden King conquers the Cal Cup Juvenile Fillies

Cal Cup Juvenile Fillies, 7 furlongs, $100,00 purse

 

 

 Possible overlays                          Morning line

#2 Miss Georgie Girl                          2/1
#3 Camille C                                    9/2

Since I don’t have information on juvenile stakes races, I’m using Beyer Speed Figures for maiden special weight races to try to figure out how fast theses horses need to go to win this race.

The best Beyers for maiden juvenile fillies at 6-1/2 to 7 furlongs are in the low 80’s range. So a filly that can run in the mid-to-upper 80’s has a good shot in here, I believe.

Garrett Gomez rides #2 Miss Georgie Girl and she has the best last race Beyer and best Beyer overall. That’s a lethal one-two punch at 7 furlongs in the maiden ranks.

On Aug. 29 at 5-1/2 furlongs, Miss Georgie Girl pressed a hot pace where the quarter mile was run in 21.3 and the half was 44.4. In the stretch, she had plenty left as she won by a length and earned an 85 Beyer.

That race was run so fast that Miss Georgie Girl projects to be the quickest horse to the quarter mile of these runners. This filly may press the pace again, but she also gives Gomez the option of gunning straight for the lead and not looking back.

The best chance #3 Camille C has to win is to go right to the front. Luckily for her, the early fractions at 7 furlongs are going to be much slower than when she wired a field in the General Portion Stakes at 6 furlongs on Sept. 2.

On that day, Camille C’s dawdled through the second quarter mile and, if both fillies run their best today, she shouldn’t be able to keep up with Miss Georgie Girl.

I will put $200 to win on #2 Miss Georgie Girl at 2/1 and up.

Wednesday, Santa Anita Race 9 — 5 pm post time

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Today is opening day at Oak Tree and this ninth race looks like it should have a good bet or two. I’m still a bit behind in record keeping, so after this I will only be posting on the weekends while I catch up.

Possible overlays                   Morning line

#3 Red Door Drive                      7/2
#8 Good Newsman                      9/2
#9 Markus D.                            12/1
#10 Little Heater                       12/1
#11 De Brief Me                         8/1
#13 Boo Too                             4/1

Owner Arnold Zetcher transferred #3 Red Door Drive from trainer Ron McAnally to Bob Baffert since the colt’s last race one year ago. This colt tried nine times to win on the turf against better horses, but was often wide and never quite got the job done.

Red Door Drive, who last raced in September 2008, has the right running style for 7 furlongs and has a good shot to win despite the layoff — especially if there’s some betting action. Also, jockey Martin Pedroza jumped off #13 Boo Too, 4-to-1 on the morning line, to ride for Baffert.

Four other runners are also coming off recent layoffs. Trainer Dan Hendricks saddles #8 Good Newsman and Hendricks has done well in the past with this type of horse. I would only consider geldings #9 Markus D. and #11 De Brief Me if they are bet drastically below their morning lines of 12/1 and 8/1 respectively. But the Jeff Mullins 5-year-old #10 Little Heater could spring an upset at a good price.

I will bet $300 on #3 Red Door Drive at 2/1 to 7/2, but only $150 if the odds drift from 4/1 to 10/1. In the unlikely event that any of these horses are 2/1 to 7/2, I will bet $150 on the highest priced runner in that odds range among #8 Good Newsman, #9 Markus D., #10 Little Heater and #11 De Brief Me.

At odds of 4/1 and up, I’ll put $100 on #10 Little Heater.

Sharpening the saw for Oak Tree

In the book “The 7 Habits of Highly Effective People,” author Steven Covey uses an analogy of a lumberjack who has been sawing wood for several days. As the days go by, the sawing process dulls his blades and the lumberjack is becoming less and less productive.

Covey’s solution for the lumberjack to regain top production is to take time out to sharpen his saw, then get back to work. Although he probably never plays the ponies, Covey’s life lesson is also valuable to horseplayers.

On this blog, I depend mostly on information that I compile myself to come up with horses. Pulling data out of the Daily Racing Form then entering, reorganizing and filtering it in a computer is a time-consuming process. In fact, big-money horseplayer William Benter wrote that he and his crew spent five man-years getting ready for their assault on the Hong Kong races.

Since July 2008, I have been juggling researching and handicapping with wagering and writing. But I now find myself far behind in the information gathering part of this process. So before both my production and confidence slip too far, I need to stop.

To me, an important aspect of the psychology of betting is having the confidence to wager large amounts of money without the fear of going on long losing streaks. Horseplayers might have a winner that pays well, but profits will be limited if they have no confidence and bet just $5.

And the only way to get this kind of confidence is to gather large amounts of past data then analyze it correctly. So, with Fairplex running now, I will stop betting for a while and take the elevator down to my research lab, which is some 60 feet under the basement of the Wynn Hotel & Casino (not really).

I will try to finish up by the beginning of Santa Anita on Sept. 30, but it’s unlikely that I’ll meet that deadline. When I am done, I’m hoping that my saw will be sharp enough to cut down an Oak Tree.

It’s tough to beat Saratoga’s Travers Stakes

The first Travers I attended was with my father in 1982 when Runaway Groom beat the three horses that won the Triple Crown races — Gato Del Sol (Kentucky Derby), Aloma’s Ruler (Preakness Stakes) and Conquistador Cielo (Belmont Stakes).

The five-horse field was small, but the quality was high.

Conquistador Cielo, who was syndicated for $36 million before the Travers, was 2-to-5 that day and showed up in front bandages for the first time. Angel Codero, riding Aloma’s Ruler, pinned Conquistador Cielo on the bad rail in a two-horse speed duel.

The race caller didn’t recognize Runaway Groom until midstretch when  the Canadian invader was within two lengths of rolling by the two leaders. I was watching the race on the track apron and couldn’t believe my eyes.

Like everybody else, I believed Conquistador Cielo couldn’t lose.

Since that day, I’ve been to the Travers maybe 10 times and I can’t recall ever having the winner. But I keep coming back because, as I quickly found out in 1982, the atmosphere is tremendous.

This year, my results were no different, as I keyed Quality Road on top in the tri while putting both Charitable Man and Kensel on top in my exactas. Summer Bird, I deduced, was being overbet at 5-to-2 so I didn’t use him much.

The Saratoga paddock looked like the red carpet on Oscar night as the Travers field entered the walking ring.

Trainer Bill Mott, far right, saddled Hold Me Back to a second-place finish in the Travers. The horse was ridden by Julien Le Paroux

Rain was off-and-on all day, but things seemed to go smoothly regardless.

Something tells me that this isn't the first time these two have been to a racetrack.

Summer Bird's jockey Kent Desormeaux is interviewed by TV's Jeannine Edwards in the paddock before the Travers.

Summer Bird, left, follows Travers favorite Quality Road in the Saratoga walking ring. Ridden by Kent Desormeaux, Summer Bird won the race while Quality Road was third.

Saratoga race fans watch as Summer Bird takes the lead entering the stretch.

Warrior's Reward's jockey Calvin Borel makes a point while walking to the jockeys' room after the Travers Stakes.

Ramon Dominguez, who rode Charitable Man in the Travers, discusses the race immediately afterward.

D. Wayne Lukas, who always had a good eye for a filly, had several horses entered Travers Day, but none in the graded stakes races.

John Velazquez signs an autograph before riding Munnings in the Kings Bishop Stakes.

It looks like "The Edge" had another tremendous day. But, of course, it always does.

Desormeaux gets a police escort from the track to the jockeys' room after winning the Travers on Summer Bird

 

The Red Sox also won in the slop

The night before the Travers, I went to a rainy Red Sox game at Fenway Park.

Boston fans seated behind the Blue Jays dugout shout 9th-inning encouragement to the Sox

Red Sox fans honored the late Sen. Ted Kennedy

JD Drew gets interviewed after the Sox won 6-5.

Rain fell throughout the game and play was stopped for about an hour

Jonathan Papelbon saved the win after loading the bases.

The Pesky Pole -- the nickname for Fenway's right field foul pole -- is covered with fans' autographs.

Big Papi walked and came around to score the winning run

My brother Chris celebrates the Sox victory

Monmouth Park — a shore thing

On Aug. 20-22, I went to Atlantic City then Monmouth Park. 

I hadn’t been to Atlantic City since 1984 when I was 19 years old.  I remember having about $50 on me and I naively thought it would be enough spending money for the weekend.

We went to the beach for a couple of hours then it was onto the casino. After about 30 minutes of gambling my $50 was long gone. 

I’ve lived in Las Vegas since 1994 and wondered if Atlantic City had changed at all. It’s true that the Marina area ,where the Borgata Hotel is located, is as nice as anywhere in Las Vegas.

But the Boardwalk area seemed rundown to me. I saw many people sleeping on benches, almost all of the rolling chairs were idle, and a new construction project owner decided to stop building his casino.

I was impressed by Monmouth Park. It’s located about two miles from Long Branch Beach, which has many nice restaurants and shops, and a boardwalk that people use to walk, run and bike.

The track is spacious, has a nice simulcast room and the paddock area has three huge trees that shade the horses that use the walking ring.

Jay's Wish walks the paddock before Monmouth's second race on Aug. 22.

A handler ties the tongue of #5 Jay's Wish.

This runner seems to be enjoying a blast of cold water after running on a humid New Jersey day.

Jockey Jackie Davis, riding #7 Decue, can't hold off the rush of #8 Glory Tour and Victor Santiago on Aug. 21

Jockey Channing Hill heads to the scale after riding Meadow Blue

Jockey Jackie Davis, left, watches replay after getting nailed on front-runner #7 Decue

Jockey Jose Velez weighs out after riding French Transition on Aug. 22

Velez cleans up before heading back to the jockey's room

Monmouth Park may not run a meet with the quality of Saratoga, but the paddock landscaping is unquestionably second to none.

Atlantic City’s Boardwalk

Rolling chair operators didn't have much business on Atlantic City's famed Boardwalk when I visited on Aug. 21.

Lifeguards chat with beachgoers while a billboard asks gamblers to stay away from Bally's and Caesars until labor problems are settled.

The Goose isn't making anymore appearances on the mound for the Yankees, but you can catch him in Atlantic City.

Eastward Ho

With airlines competing for passengers, I was able to get a ticket from Las Vegas to Philadelphia for just $99. I figured why should I pay $175 for a direct flight to Boston when I can land in Philly, hit Atlantic City for a day then then drive up the Jersey Shore to Monmouth Park.

So, on Thursday that’s what I’m going to do. After Monmouth, I’ll loop around and possibly check out some Jersey Shore beach towns before catching a Saturday evening flight from Philadelphia to Boston, which was only $59.

On Aug. 29, I am hoping to be at Saratoga’s Travers Stakes.

Since I won’t be in Las Vegas, I won’t be blogging about maidens from Del Mar for a couple of weeks. But I will try to put up some photos of anything interesting I might come across.

Horse gets a bath in saddling area at Saratoga.

Results, Del Mar Sunday Race 6 — lost $400

Riding for trainer Jack Carava, Garrett Gomez got #12 Lunar Humor up in the final strides

Three horses were dropping into maiden claiming $25,000 for the first time after running decently against classier animals. And #12 Lunar Humor, #2 Al N Con and #4 Morton Owen finished 1-2-3.

 Trainer Jack Carava ran Lunar Humor against maiden special weight company until his fifth race. But when the gelding could finish no better than third in four straight races, Carava began descending the class ladder.

In the maiden claiming ranks last May and June, Lunar Humor ran low-to-mid 70 Beyer Speed Figures while finishing second two times – first for $80,000 claiming and then for $40,000. On July 24 something curious happened, as jockey Michael Baze merely breezed Lunar Humor in the stretch, which caused the Beyer to sink to an all-time low of 63.

I am sure that the low last-race Beyer kept some betting money off of Lunar Humor, a 3-to-1 shot, despite the presence of jockey Garrett Gomez, who has a large following. In a recent TVG video, Carava — who is the son of a horse trainer — said that he enjoys picking spots for his runners, strategizing and compared horse racing to poker.

So maybe, just maybe, Carava was “strategizing” by breezing his horse in the stretch, so it would pay a good price when he picked his spot on the drop.

This race began with #2 Al N Con, #8 She Made Me Do It and #11 Cafe Con Leche all battling head-to-head down the backstretch.  Al N Con, who had led in his last two races against $40,000 maiden claimers, shook clear by a length on the bend, as Cafe Con Leche kept chasing.

As the field swung into the lane, Morton Owen and Joel Rosario were making a move some eight paths wide with Lunar Humor also coming on just inside of him. They had to make up four lengths on Al N Con, 4/1, at the top of the stretch.

When Joe Talamo rode Al N Con past the sixteenth pole, he still had what appeared to be a safe 2-length lead. But Lunar Humor came with a late charge to get up with two jumps to go.

Despite being extremely wide, Morton Owen, at 9-to-2, only missed by two lengths.

I bet $400 on Morton Owen because he had lots of positive long-term betting angles going for him. This gelding was 3-to-1 on the morning line, but was cold on the board throughout the betting period and ended up at 9-to-2.

To watch a replay of this race, go to www.calracing.com.

PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN 1 1 Deltamax (FL) Gryder A Cerin V 30.20 11 2 2 Al N Con (CA) Talamo J Rosales R 4.10 2 3 3 Joys Last One (CA) Stra K Martinez S 65.30 10 4 4 Morton Owen (KY) Rosario J Mitchell M 4.50 3 5 5 Spartan Jet (KY) Pedroza M Lopez J 41.60 7 6 6 Smokenomore (CA) Garcia M Spawr W 6.50 4 7 7 Warren’s Juan (CA) Santiago Reyes C Lewis C 37.10 8 8 8 She Made Me Do It (CA) Blanc B Bacorn H 16.80 12 9 9 Secret Lure (CA) Valdivia, Jr. J Puype M 21.80 6 10 10 Yrunvs M. B. (CA) Valdez F Becerra R 27.30 9 11 11 Cafe Con Leche (KY) Quinonez A Miller P 3.70 5 12 12 Lunar Humor (KY) Gomez G Carava J 3.20 1 SCR - Ol’dogtown (CA) Scott J Bellasis R - - SCR - Objectified (CA) Baze T West T - -

Pgm Win Place Show 12 $8.40 $4.40 $3.20 2 - $5.20 $3.60 4 - - $3.60   Exotic Payoffs $1.00 Exacta paid $17.30 (12-2) $1.00 Pick 3 paid $126.60 (7-1-12) $1.00 Superfecta paid $264.80 (12-2-4-6) $1.00 Trifecta paid $40.90 (12-2-4) $2.00 Daily Double paid $51.20 (1-12) $2.00 Quinella paid $17.20 (2-12)

Results, Del Mar Sunday Race 4 — lost $300

Joel Rosario, riding #7 It Tiz, inherited the lead and never gave it up.

Although I didn’t have the winner, at least I was right about one thing in this race. And that was that #6 Imperatriz was clearly a false favorite.

Sure, in her last start on July 23 Imperatriz showed good speed. But she was loose on the lead and, although she had an easy trip, she didn’t come close to the median winning Beyer Speed Figure for this class of fillies. Still on Sunday, the public saw the early foot in her past performance line and bet her down to 5-to-2.

In the race, debuter #1 Linda Surprise bounced out of the gate and dueled with Imperatriz all the way down the backside. These two were 6 lengths ahead of the next pair of horses – #7 It Tiz and #3 Seriously.

By the top of the stretch, both Imperatriz and Linda Surprise were gasping for air and #7 It Tiz was ready to pounce. It Tiz inherited the lead and held off Seriously, as It Tiz’ jockey Joel Rosario did a nice job of race riding by pinning Seriously against the rail late.

I bet $150 on first-time starters #2 Dixie Sandals at 16/1 and #5 Vivacious Anna at 15/1. 

To watch a replay of this race, go to www.calracing.com.

PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN 1 1 Linda Surprise (KY) Baze T Cho M 16.40 7 2 2 Dixie’s Sandals (KY) Nakatani C Harty E 16.10 3 3 3 Seriously (KY) Espinoza V Baffert B 2.20 2 4 4 Star of Sapphire (KY) Smith M Biancone P 3.20 4 5 5 Vivacious Anna (KY) Quinonez A O’Neill D 15.10 6 6 6 Imperatriz (KY) Berrio O Avila A 2.60 5 7 7 It Tiz (KY) Rosario J Glatt M 4.50 1

Pgm Win Place Show 7 $11.00 $5.40 $3.60 3 - $4.20 $2.80 2 - - $5.20   Exotic Payoffs $1.00 Exacta paid $18.70 (7-3) $1.00 Pick 3 paid $84.30 (3-4-7) $1.00 Trifecta paid $144.40 (7-3-2) $2.00 Daily Double paid $32.40 (4-7) $2.00 Quinella paid $15.60 (3-7)

Results, Del Mar Saturday Race 7 — lost $500

Newly-inducted Hall-of-Famer Bob Baffert broke #12 Marcello's maiden on Saturday.

It really made sense for the Bob Baffert-trained #12 Marcello to win this race. In his only lifetime start on July 25, Marcello lagged at the back of the back then came with a strong rally at 5-1/2 furlongs to get fourth.

Click photo for view of the finish

The winner that day, Tiny Woods, was another colt out of the Baffert barn who led wire-to-wire. Marcello’s running style didn’t fit at that short sprint distance, but it was perfect for Saturday’s 6-1/2 furlongs.

In the race, Marcello broke alertly then settled in fourth place, as #2 Our Crazy Monkey led down the backstretch. Jockey Garrett Gomez – who was likely the reason Marcello’s post time odds were crushed to 1-to-2 — began his wide move as the horses approached the turn.

Our Crazy Monkey gave the lead up quickly and had no chance of staying with Marcello. But #9 Pulsion, another second-timer, had lots of fight in him and really showed up ready to run.

Pulsion, a 9-to-1 shot who was adding blinkers for trainer Patrick Biancone, closed into Marcello’s 2-length lead with every stride as the wire approached. But Marcello hung on by a nose in a dramatic photo finish.

I liked Marcello but his short price forced me to look elsewhere. So, I spread $500 out over three first timers. #3 Poker Trick, at 14/1, #6 Erbeia, 11/1, and #10 We Will Rock, 12/1. However, none of them fired.

To watch a replay of this race, go to www.calracing.com.

PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN 2 1 Our Crazy Monkey (NY) Pedroza M O’Neill D 18.90 3 3 2 Poker Trick (FL) Baze T O’Neill D 14.30 10 1 3 Viva Macho (FL) Baze M Cho M 44.10 6 4 4 Mr. Saturdaynight (KY) Talamo J Sadler J 11.70 7 5 5 Quietly Waiting (KY) Garcia M Knapp S 44.60 11 6 6 Erbeia (KY) Nakatani C Mandella R 11.10 8 7 7 Nuggets Please (NM) Kaenel K Leonard R 51.90 9 8 8 Came Aboard (KY) Quinonez A Gonzalez J 30.80 4 9 9 Pulsion (FL) Smith M Biancone P 9.50 2 10 10 We Will Rock (KY) Rosario J O’Neill D 12.90 5 12 11 Marcello (KY) Gomez G Baffert B 0.50 1 SCR - Retired American (MD)     - - SCR - Undaunted Rally (KY)     - -

Pgm Win Place Show 12 $3.00 $2.60 $2.20 9 - $6.60 $4.60 2 - - $5.60   Exotic Payoffs $1.00 Exacta paid $9.00 (12-9) $1.00 Pick 3 paid $152.40 (1-1-12) $1.00 Superfecta paid $1255.90 (12-9-2-8) $1.00 Trifecta paid $136.00 (12-9-2) $2.00 Daily Double paid $41.40 (1-12) $2.00 Quinella paid $14.60 (9-12)

Masked man

Jockey Rafael Bejarano will ride with a protective face mask when he returns from injury Aug. 28. Bejarano broke his jaw, cheek and nose when his mount Mi Rey went down on Del Mar's Opening Day.

Sunday, Del Mar Race 6 — 4:30 pm post time

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden claiming $25,000, 6 furlongs, 3 yo’s and up

Possible overlays                    Morning line

#2 Al N Con                                  5/1
#4 Morton Owen                            5/2
#6 Smokenomore                           12/1
#12 Lunar Humor                            3/1

Mike Mitchell leads over #4 Morton Owen. While it’s true that this gelding has had six chances to break his maiden and couldn’t get the job done. And that he was bet below 4-to-1 in his last four starts.

It is also true that this 3-year-old is coming off of a four-month freshening and is dropping in class to his lowest lifetime level. Furthermore, the 74 Beyer Speed Figure Morton Owen ran in February equates to an 83 after adding on six points for growth in his 3-year-old season and three more points for a wide trip.

If Morton Owen can run in the neighborhood of an 83 Beyer then he’ll be very tough considering that the median winning Beyer Speed Figure is just a 74.

Another who I give a chance to is #2 Al N Con. He’s also running in a $25,000 maiden claimer for the first time. On July 29, he tired after a speed duel in a maiden claiming $35,000 sprint to earn a 71 Beyer. With softer early fractions, Al N Con may be able to run a 77.

Lastly, Jack Carava, the trainer of #12 Lunar Humor, changes jockeys from Michael Baze to Garrett Gomez. Looking at the July 24 race replay, it appears that Lunar Humor breezed in the stretch. In the past, Lunar Humor has earned low-to-mid 70s Beyer figures, which may be enough to win if Morton Owen and Al N Con aren’t at their best.

I will bet $400 to win on #4 Morton Owen at 8/5 to 9/1 and $100 on #2 Al N Con at 9/2 and above. If Morton Owen’s odds are out of the zone, then I will substitute $200 to win on #12 Lunar Humor at 2/1 and up.

Sunday, Del Mar Race 4 — 3:30 pm post time

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden Special Weight, 6-1/2 furlongs, 2 yo fillies

Possible overlays             Morning line

#2 Dixie’s Sandals                     8/1
#3 Seriously                             3/1
#4 Star of Sapphire                   4/1
#5 Vivacious Anna                    8/1

Although #6 Imperatriz showed good speed in her debut and lasted for second, this filly had an easy trip yet didn’t run anywhere close to the median winning Beyer Speed Figure of 80 for this class.

If the public sends Imperatriz off at close to her 5-to-2 morning line then I will enthusiastically bet against both her and #7 It Tiz, a first time starter who is 4-to-1 on the early line.

Much better potential wagers are #2 Dixie’s Sandals, #4 Star of Sapphire and #5 Vivacious Anna. Also, the Bob Baffert-trained #3 Seriously obviously has a decent shot, but she may be overbet.

Jockey Mike Smith rode Seriously in her debut, but now he shows up on Star of Sapphire, who’s been working out well. Star of Sapphire has a few good betting angles going for her.

Doug O’Neill saddles #5 Vivacious Anna and O’Neill has done well with this type of maiden in the past. Finally, Dixie Sandals has mostly slow workouts, but she fits the profile of a winning debuter — but only if she falls into the 10/1 to 19/1 betting range.

I will bet $250 to win on #4 Star of Sapphire at 7/2 to 19/1; $150 on #5 Vivacious Anna at 5/1 to 19/1 and $150 on #2 Dixie’s Sandals at 10/1 to 19/1.

If the public goes overboard on Star of Sapphire and bets her below 7-to-2, then I will instead substitute $200 to win on #3 Seriously at 5/2 to 7/1 only.

Saturday, Del Mar Race 7 — 5 pm post time

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden Special Weight, 6-1/2 furlongs, 2-year-olds

Possible overlays                    Morning line

#3 Poker Trick                            7/2
#6 Erbeia                                   9/2
#9 Pulsion                                  8/1
#10 We Will Rock                8/1
#12 Marcello                               3/1

In his first lifetime race on July 25, #12 Marcello sat at the back of the 10-horse field before accellerating four-wide on the turn. In the stretch, jockey Garrett Gomez ducked Marcello to the inside and closed more than three lengths.

On that day, trainer Bob Baffert also saddled the wire-to-wire winning favorite Tiny Woods, so Marcello might not have been well meant. This 6-1/2 furlong distance seems to fit his running style much better.

However, Gomez might cause Marcello to be overbet.

Doug O’Neill is training three first-time starters in this one: #2 Our Crazy Monkey, #3 Poker Trick and #10 We Will Rock. I don’t like Crazy Monkey, but will bet on Poker Trick and We Will Rock if the odds are decent.

Other colts who deserve consideration are #6 Erbeia and #9 Pulsion. Richard Mandella, the trainer of Erbeia is winning at 20 percent for the year, but Pulsion’s trainer Patrick Biancone is struggling at 8 percent since coming off his suspension for possessing cobra venom.

I will bet $250 on Marcello at odds of 5/2 and above. Also, I want $150 to win on #3 Poker Trick at 7/2 to 19/1, and $200 on #10 We Will Rock at 5/1 to 19/1.

Finally, if #6 Erbeia is 10/1 to 19/1 I will bet $150 to win on him. And only if Marcello is bet below 5/2 will I put $150 to win on #9 Pulsion at 5/2 to 7/1.

Living large

Is this the lifestyle of a Thoroughbred owner? At Del Mar it is.

Results, Del Mar Wednesday Race 2 — won $1,820

This appeared to be a weak field for the level because none of these runners approached the median 82 Beyer Speed Figure that’s usually needed to win.

Surprisingly, the public settled on #5 Rented Cop as the 8-to-5 favorite. I assume it was because Rented Cop was dropping from maiden special weight into claiming. Although this gelding showed some speed in his debut, he really had not shown much overall promise.

Rented Cop’s 43 and 64 Beyer Speed Figures were nothing special and he was an easy favorite to wager against. On the rail, #1 Crazy Wager was 10 or 11 paths wide entering the stretch in his last, so I bumped his speed figure from 66 to 76 to make up for the lost ground.

And #7 Final Journey could have been any kind. He ran OK in his only lifetime start last February, but his workouts were all slow ones. Regardless, I gave trainer Marty Jones the benefit of the doubt.

In the race, apprentice jockey Christian Reyes-Santiago went right to the lead with 18-to-1 shot #3 Del Mar Express. The only problem with that strategy is that early speed is not as valuable at 6-1/2 furlongs as it is at shorter distances. Before even hitting the turn, Del Mar Express was tackled by #2 Velikaya on the inside and Rented Cop on the outside.

Del Mar Express backed up fast on the turn while Rented Cop continued to duke it out with Velikaya. By this time, Final Journey had worked his way through the pack to be third at the top of the stretch.

At 7-to-1, Final Journey rallied to the lead at the eighth pole and Crazy Wager, at 9-to-2, also showed a good late kick to get second.

I bet $400 on Crazy Wager and $300 on Final Journey. I got back $2,520 for a gain of $1,820.

To watch a replay of this race, go to www.calracing.com.

PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN 1 1 Crazy Wager (CA) Baze M Becerra R 4.30 2 2 2 Velikaya (CA) Rosario J Moger, Jr. E 9.00 5 3 3 Del Mar Express (CA) Santiago Reyes C Mendoza J 18.60 6 4 4 Philly Slew (CA) Baze T Gregory W 5.20 4 5 5 Rented Cop (CA) Nakatani C Pender M 1.70 3 6 6 Comic Thunder (CA) Kaenel K Periban J 4.00 7 7 7 Final Journey (CA) Talamo J Jones M 7.40 1

Pgm Win Place Show 7 $16.80 $6.60 $3.80 1 - $4.60 $3.40 5 - - $3.00   Exotic Payoffs $1.00 Exacta paid $39.50 (7-1) $1.00 Trifecta paid $153.00 (7-1-5) $2.00 Daily Double paid $69.20 (3-7) $2.00 Quinella paid $34.40 (1-7)

Results, Del Mar Sunday Race 10 — won $400

Last summer, #12 Legend of My Own ran 76 and 73 Beyer Speed Figures in two consecutive maiden special weight races, but then tailed off into the 60’s while racing three times against maiden claimers.

Something was obviously wrong. So, trainer Jeff Mullins gave Legend of My Own eight months off and the gelding responded well by coming back in June to run a 76 Beyer.

Breaking from the outside in Sunday’s race, Legend of My Own was able to avoid trouble from a spill. Alex Solis shot #3 Endless Moon up the inside to the lead, but the gelding went head over heels soon after. Solis’ body tumbled to the ground as the other 10 horses attempted to avoid him.

But #8 Captain Cash slammed into the rolling Endless Moon causing that horse to fall and tossing Aaron Gryder. Luckily, neither of the jockeys were seriously hurt.

As the race continued, longshot #1 Richardminichiello led down the backside, but was overtaken by #10 Afleet Hopetown who took the field to top of the stretch. On the turn, #6 Pinstripe Kid made a move on the inside and Legend of My Own went with him.

In deep stretch, Pinstripe Kid briefly held the lead but succumbed to Legend of My Own, who was just too good.

I bet $300 on Legend of My Own and $200 on Pinstripe Kid. I collected $900 and profited $400.

To watch a replay of this race, go to www.calracing.com.

PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN 1 1 Richardminichiello (CA) Valdez F Truman E 64.30 8 2 2 Ryland (CA) Garcia M Yakteen T 37.90 6 3 3 Endless Moon (KY) Solis A Lewis L 4.70 11 4 4 Mister Jo Jangles (KY) Kaenel K Fulmer D 60.80 7 6 5 Pinstripe Kid (CA) Santiago Reyes C Morey, Jr. W 4.50 2 8 6 Captain Cash (KY) Gryder A Harty E 10.40 10 9 7 Whizer (CA) Stra K Bradvica L 19.40 4 10 8 Afleet Hopetown (KY) Delgadillo A Capestro P 14.60 3 11 9 Lucky B Lou (CA) Quinonez A Schiewe P 57.90 9 12 10 Legend of My Own (CA) Rosario J Mullins J 2.00 1 14 11 Strong Belief (KY) Baze T West T 3.30 5 SCR - Peeka Buddha (KY)     - - SCR - Tralee Creek (KY) Arambula P DeLima J - - SCR - Surprisefor Toulla (CA)     - -

Pgm Win Place Show 12 $6.00 $3.20 $2.60 6 - $4.80 $4.00 10 - - $7.00   Exotic Payoffs $1.00 Exacta paid $14.00 (12-6) $1.00 Pick 3 paid $12.90 (10-6-12) $1.00 Pick 4 paid $177.60 (4-2/3/6/10-4/6-5/7/12/1 $1.00 Place Pick All paid $28318.90 (10 OF 10) $1.00 Super High Five paid $1537.30 (12-6-10-9-14) $1.00 Superfecta paid $595.00 (12-6-10-9) $1.00 Trifecta paid $109.60 (12-6-10) $2.00 Daily Double paid $15.20 (6-12) $2.00 Pick 6 paid $113.40 (9-3/5-4-2/3/6/10-4/6-5/ $2.00 Pick 6 paid $11540.00 (9-3/5-4-2

Results, Del Mar Sunday Race 6 — lost $150

Martin Garcia rode the rail to victory Sunday aboard #5 Champagne d'Oro.

Trainer Eric Guillot thought enough of Champagne d’Oro to enter her in both the Cinderella Stakes and the Landaluce off a second-place finish in a maiden race.

In the Cinderella, Champagne d”Oro was in tight at the five-sixteenths pole, but earned a 77 Beyer Speed Figure when she finished third. Considering the median winning Beyer for maiden special weight is just an 81, Champagne d’Oro looked to be a strong contender.

She didn’t disappoint.

From the outset, Champagne d’Oro was ready to run. She broke alertly when the bell rang and eased to the lead on the backstretch with little encouragement from rider Martin Garcia. She knocked heads with first-time starter #10 Stockings on the turn. But even so, Garcia was sitting chilly in the saddle, while jockey Christian Santiago Reyes was riding hard on Stockings.

Once Garcia let loose in the lane, Champagne d’Oro opened up on the field and won easily.

In the race preview, I noted Champagne d’Oro’s potential superiority, but figured her odds would not be high enough. In the end, I bet $150 to win on #9 The Great Atlantic, who did nothing.

To watch a replay of this race, go to www.calracing.com.

PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN 1 1 Hondo’s Way (KY) Espinoza V Mandella R 18.20 6 2 2 Pure Class (KY) Smith M Sadler J 3.60 5 4 3 Saint Isabelle (KY) Talamo J Puype M 23.90 4 5 4 Champagne d’Oro (KY) Garcia M Guillot E 2.10 1 6 5 Go Ask Alex (KY) Delgadillo A Glenney J 38.20 8 7 6 Softly Singing (KY) Rosario J Hollendorfer J 2.80 2 8 7 Miss Peanut (CA) Stra K Martinez S 61.40 9 9 8 The Great Atlantic (KY) Gryder A Glatt M 6.20 10 10 9 Stockings (KY) Santiago Reyes C Sadler J 13.80 3 11 10 Pulpit Magic (KY) Solis A Dominguez C 20.10 7 SCR - Back Nine Doc (FL)     - -

Pgm Win Place Show 5 $6.20 $3.40 $2.80 7 - $4.00 $3.40 10 - - $6.60   Exotic Payoffs $1.00 Exacta paid $12.50 (5-7) $1.00 Pick 3 paid

Wednesday, Del Mar Race 2 — 2:30 pm post time

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden claiming $40,000, 6-1/2 furlongs, 3 yo’s +

Possible overlays                   Morning line

#1 Crazy Wager                           4/1
#4 Philly Slew                              7/2
#7 Final Journey                           5/1

In his last race on July 20, #1 Crazy Wager was toward the back of the pack then started his run on the turn. But halfway on the bend, he was extremely wide — maybe in the 10 or 11 path — but still earned a respectable 66 Beyer Speed Figure.

Conservatively, I bumped the figure up to a 76, which just might be good enough to win this race if none of the others throws in a monster effort.

Another who has a shot is #4 Philly Slew, who earned a 73 Beyer on April 22. However, in his last race on July 12, Philly Slew could only muster a 66 Beyer after saving ground all the way on the rail.

The Marty Jones-trained #7 Final Journey may be the best betting proposition. This gelding, who is coming off a long layoff for his second lifetime start, has nothing but slow workouts. With no world beaters in here, it seems like a good spot for Jones to spring a surprise.

I will bet $400 to win on #1 Crazy Wager at 5/2 to 9/1 and $300 to win on #7 Final Journey at 2/1 to 9/1.  At 10/1 or more on either, my bet reduces to $100.

Also, if #1 Crazy Wager goes off at 2/1 or less then I will play $200 on #4 Philly Slew at 3/1 or more instead.

Results, Del Mar Friday Race 9 — lost $500

Trainer Mike Mitchell and owner Desperado Stables cashed on $16.80 winner #6 Wicked Mischief

Sometimes horse racing is just horse racing. But other times it’s more like a poker game.

And nobody’s better at playing the poker side of it than Mike Mitchell. Over the years, Mitchell has made his name as a savvy claiming trainer. And sometimes trainers must drop valuable horses in class for easy wins. If they only dropped the bad ones, then nobody would claim off of them. 

So, in order to sell a horse with problems, other trainers must believe that they are claiming a good runner and getting a great bargain.

In Friday’s $25,000 maiden claimer, Mitchell saddled first-time starter #6 Wicked Mischief. I became curious because somebody, it seemed, spent serious money on this horse as a yearling and now it was being risked for just $25,000. In Wicked Mischief’s past performances, it showed that a winning bidder in 2005 either paid $160,000 for the horse at the Keeneland September auction, or the owners at the time bought it back for that price.

The stud fee alone for sire Distorted Humor is $150,000, which was six times the claiming price for Friday’s race.

Furthermore, Wicked Mischief was a 5-year-old and had yet to run his first race. But somebody was paying years of bills for this gelding, who must have suffered from serious problems at one time.

On the other hand, current owner Desperado Stables could have recently bought this horse privately from the original bidder for $15,000. It’s hard to tell.  

Anyway, Mitchell and the Desperado Stables partners probably concluded that it was unlikely that anybody would take a chance and claim Wicked Mischief. So they ran him in an easy spot.

It was the best of all worlds. This horse’s well-documented problems allowed the connections to cash an easy bet at excellent odds while picking up a purse of more than $11,000. All of this with a horse that was vastly superior to his competition and had little chance of being claimed.

In the race, jockey Joel Rosario took Wicked Mischief to the back of the pack then he made a move 7-wide on the turn toward the leaders. In the stretch, the others were no match.

Wicked Mischief paid $16.80 and nobody dropped a claim.

In my race preview, I liked Wicked Mischief , but only at odds of 3/1 to 6/1. I figured if the horse was live then the stable would be betting. Wicked Mischief opened cold on the board at 12/1 or so then the money gradually came in before he closed at 7/1. I spread a total of $500 on three other horses — #7 Sven Diesel at 4/1, #10 Megillah at 7/2 and #11 Hotsie at 15/1.

To watch a replay of this race, go to www.calracing.com.

PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN 1 1 Donthaveatizzy (CA) Baze T Palma H 9.40 7 2 2 Giveitagomate (CA) Kaenel K Kitchingman A 17.80 10 3 3 Bert’s too Kinky (CA) Blanc B McCarthy S 49.80 9 4 4 Classical Bartok (CA) Pedroza M Papaprodromou G 71.70 8 5 5 Born to Cus (CA) Talamo J O’Neill D 12.80 6 6 6 Wicked Mischief (KY) Rosario J Mitchell M 7.40 1 7 7 Sven Diesel (KY) Quinonez A Eurton P 4.20 2 9 8 Fiery Rebel (KY) Gomez G Knapp S 2.20 5 10 9 Megillah (CA) Espinoza V Kruljac J 3.90 3 11 10 Hotsie (FL) Nakatani C Hess, Jr. R 15.60 4 12 11 Warren’s Deputy (CA) Arambula P Gutierrez J 72.80 12 13 12 Worlds Apart (CA) Santiago Reyes C Lewis C 24.90 11 SCR - De Brief Me (CA) Baze M Puype M - - SCR - Swingin Jim (CA)     - -

Pgm Win Place Show 6 $16.80 $8.00 $5.80 7 - $5.60 $4.40 10 - - $4.60   Exotic Payoffs $1.00 Exacta paid $46.10 (6-7) $1.00 Pick 3 paid $609.10 (6-10-6)

Results, Del Mar Friday Race 2 — lost $200

Alex Solis put #4 Temerity on the lead then cruised to victory

It’s obvious that #4 Temerity was a bit better than he looked in the Daily Racing Form, and somebody knew something because he was bet to 7-to-5. Temerity, who dominated wire-to-wire, was dropping in class and was running his fourth race since a long layoff.

The clues were there, as on Feb. 7 Temerity came 7-wide into the stretch to finish third in a maiden special weight race at Santa Anita, yet he still ran an 80 Beyer Speed Figure. Temerity’s speed rating could easily have been adjusted higher to an 88 for the reasonable assumption that he’d get a decent trip.

In fact, Temerity got a dream trip. He set slow fractions as the lone front runner, then wasn’t challenged in the stretch. What more can you ask for?

In the race preview, I suggested that Temerity’s chances at victory were excellent. I also liked #2 Great Home and was hoping bettors saw #5 Loyal Son’s 81 Beyer and pounded his odds.

In his last race on July 5, Loyal Son was aided by an easy rail trip, so the 81 wasn’t as good as it looked. He went off at 7-to-2 and I believed #2 Great Home was a better bet at 9-to-2, as he was cutting back in distance from 1-1/16 miles and dropping from maiden special weight.

In Friday’s race, Great Home trailed then came 5-wide on the turn under jockey Joel Rosario to finish a well-beaten second. However, the Temerity-Great Home exacta paid 8-to-1, which isn’t bad for preferring Great Home over Loyal Son, who finished fifth.

On the site, I bet $200 to win on Great Home.

To watch a replay of this race, go to www.calracing.com.

PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN 1 1 Feeling Fabulous (KY) Gryder A Ellis R 16.70 4 2 2 Great Home (KY) Rosario J Drysdale N 4.60 2 3 3 Learn the Sport (KY) Espinoza V Abrams B 9.80 3 4 4 Temerity (KY) Solis A Ellis R 1.30 1 5 5 Loyal Son (KY) Baze T Sherman A 3.60 5 6 6 Greely’s Ghost (KY) Talamo J Gaines C 15.60 6 7 7 Oceanor (CA) Santiago Reyes C O’Neill D 5.80 7

Pgm Win Place Show 4 $4.60 $2.80 $2.40 2 - $4.00 $3.00 3 - - $3.80   Exotic Payoffs $1.00 Exacta paid $9.60 (4-2) $1.00 Trifecta paid $46.50 (4-2-3) $2.00 Daily Double paid $65.20 (1-4) $2.00 Quinella paid $11.80 (2-4)

Results, Del Mar Thursday Race 8 — won $180

Despite traffic problems in the lane, #10 Purse Luva easily ran by leader #11 Cardiff Giant to win impressively.

Jockey Victor Espinoza broke Purse Luva toward the rear of this 12-horse field, as #3 Action Call, #4 Gilligan and #6 Catch My Tale all dueled for the lead. Coming into the race, trainer Caesar Dominguez dropped Purse Luva in class from maiden $50,000 claimer for his second lifetime start and added blinkers.

As the field toiled in deep stretch, the inflection in race caller Trevor Denman’s seemed to indicate he believed first-time starter #11 Cardiff Giant’s two-length lead would hold. But Purse Luva found running room and came off the rail, which opened Denman’s eyes. He called out: “Now, out of nowhere, Purse Luva. And Purse Luva looking like he just jumped in at the eighth pole. Just goes right on by.”

Cardiff Giant, from the hot Peter Miller barn, was bet to 7-to-2 and ran well but his wide trip likely compromised his finish.

I bet $150 on three horses #10 Purse Luva, at 3/1; #3 Action Call, a 9/1 shot; and debuter #5 Haimish Hy, at 13/1. I collected $630, but only profited $180 after subtracting out the $450 in bets.

To watch a replay of this race, go to www.calracing.com.

PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN 1 1 Senor Crafty (CA) Kaenel K Alcala J 8.50 5 2 2 Happy Hands (UT) Atkinson P Stute G 44.90 12 3 3 Action Call (CA) Valdivia, Jr. J Solis W 9.00 9 4 4 Gilligan (KY) Delgadillo A Stute M 5.50 7 5 5 Haimish Hy (KY) Quinonez A Sherman A 13.70 3 6 6 Catch My Tale (KY) Valdez F Talbot S 24.70 6 7 7 Zagora’s Pride (NM) Santiago Reyes C Gonzalez S 33.20 10 8 8 Straightomidnight (CA) Berrio O Avila A 10.80 11 9 9 Golden Boy Mark (CA) Baze M Pender M 14.60 4 10 10 Purse Luva (KY) Espinoza V Dominguez C 3.20 1 11 11 Cardiff Giant (KY) Baze T Miller P 3.80 2 12 12 Suitcase Simpson (CA) Pedroza M Harrington M 11.90 8 SCR - Ministerfrommiami (CA) Santiago Reyes C Sadler J - - SCR - Single Prince (CA) Pedroza M DeLima J - -

Pgm Win Place Show 10 $8.40 $4.20 $3.40 11 - $4.80 $4.00 5 - - $8.20   Exotic Payoffs $1.00 Exacta paid $13.60 (10-11) $1.00 Pick 3 paid $98.70 (8-2-10) $1.00 Pick 4 paid $733.50 (7-8-2-10/13/14) $1.00 Place Pick All paid $5253.00 (8 OF $1.00 Super High Five paid $16306.40 (10-11-5-9-1) $1.00 Superfecta paid $2517.10 (10-11-5-9) $1.00 Trifecta paid $219.60 (10-11-5) $2.00 Daily Double paid $40.80 (2-10) $2.00 Pick 6 paid $11292.40 (6/8-4/6/13-7-8-2-10/1 $2.00 Pick 6 paid $202.60 (6/8-4/6/13-7-8-2-10/13/ $2.00 Quinella paid $17.00 (10-11)

Results, Del Mar Thursday Race 4 — lost $250

Jockey Tyler Baze settled #6 Deceptively in striking position, then they burst away

Breaking from the far outside, #12 Action Gal came flying out of the gate to secure a clear lead down the backstretch. This second-time starter was recommended here after working out well and showing  good speed in her first race.

But even though she had everything her own way, and was a decent price at 5-to-2, Action Gal could not muster the needed stretch kick and was passed late by two horses. The favorite, #6 Deceptively, was dropped in class from $40,000 claiming by trainer Matthew Chew. Jockey Tyler Baze, who always seems to have his maiden sprinters near the early lead, got Deceptively to break sharply and settle a couple of lengths off the lead in fourth.

Deceptively appeared to have tons of horse on the turn and Baze fortunately found a seam to slip through as the filly moved into second place entering the stretch. Once she was let loose in the lane, Deceptively outclassed the field.

Finishing second was another horse I liked. The 7-to-1 shot #1 Bye Bye Hollywood was coming back from a two-month layoff. In her only lifetime start May 21, Bye Bye Hollywood almost did the impossible — winning a 4-1/2 furlong maiden sprint from an outside post. She had a half-a-length lead in a $40,000 claiming race in deep stretch, but couldn’t hold on.

In Thursday’s race, 7-pound apprentice Christian Santiago Reyes kept Bye Bye Hollywood in the middle of the pack early. This filly rode the fence on the turn then came outside for her run, but was second best.

I bet $150 to win on #12 Action Gal and another $100 on Bye Bye Hollywood.

To watch a replay of this race, go to www.calracing.com.

PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN 1 1 Bye Bye Hollywood (KY) Santiago Reyes C La Croix D 7.50 2 2 2 Chatty Lula (CA) Baze M Solis W 7.50 5 3 3 Obvious Choice (CA) Talamo J Dominguez C 8.80 6 5 4 Whatusaywhatumean (NM) Atkinson P Gonzalez S 49.50 7 6 5 Deceptively (FL) Baze T Chew M 1.70 1 7 6 Don’t Reiterate (KY) Delgadillo A Velasquez D 19.40 4 8 7 Fair Kisses (KY) Arambula P DeLeon R 40.80 8 9 8 Summer Soprano (CA) Berrio O Stute G 40.80 9 10 9 Wait ‘n Sea (CA) Quinonez A O’Neill D 15.30 10 11 10 Outback Melissa (CA) Espinoza V Troeger R 16.60 11 12 11 Action Gal (KY) Pedroza M Machowsky M 2.90 3 SCR - Unbridled Brew (CA)     - - SCR - A Soft Breeze (FL)     - -

Pgm Win Place Show 6 $5.40 $3.20 $2.80 1 - $6.60 $4.40 12 - - $2.80   Exotic Payoffs $1.00 Exacta paid $15.30 (6-1) $1.00 Pick 3 paid $55.70 (4-6-6) $1.00 Superfecta paid $438.50 (6-1-12-7) $1.00 Trifecta paid $58.40 (6-1-12) $2.00 Daily Double paid $16.60 (6-6) $2.00 Quinella paid $19.40 (1-6)

Sunday, Del Mar Race 10 — 6:30 pm post time

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Possible overlays                   Morning line

#3 Endless Moon                      5/1
#6 Pinstripe Kid                        5/1
#8 Captain Cash                       6/1
#12 Legend of My Own              7/2
#14 Strong Belief                      9/2

This race has a few possible winners and #12 Legend of My Own looks like a strong play at 2-to-1 or more.

This 4-year-old gelding, who is trained by Jeff Mullins, is making his eighth start and his fourth at this class. But on June 27, Legend of My Own came off an eight-month layoff  to rally powerfully in a 6-furlong race. He not only has the right running style for this distance, but Legend of My Own also ran a series of Beyer Speed Figures last summer that are fast enough to win this.

A couple of stall doors down, #14 Strong Belief was competitive with Legend of My Own on June 27 when the two were separated by less than a length. However, jockey Christian Santiago Reyes jumps from Strong Belief to ride #6 Pinstripe Kid.

It’s possible Pinstripe Kid is far better than he looks. This gelding ran a 68 Beyer as a 2-year-old last summer and it’s logical that his natural growth  allows him to run in the low 80s now.

Another coming off a long layoff is #8 Captain Cash. Trained by Eoin Harty, this horse has been working out well and showed speed before dumping the jock in his last race in November.

Finally, #3 Endless Moon is a second-time starter that is dropping in class after not disgracing himself in a turf sprint.

I rank the horses this way: #12 Legend of My Own, #6 Pinstripe Kid, #14 Strong Belief, #3 Endless Moon and #8 Captain Cash.

I will bet $300 to win on #12 Legend of My Own at 2/1 to 7/2 only, and $200 on #6 Pinstripe Kid at 2/1 to 9/1. If Legend of My Own drifts to 4/1 to 9/1, then I’ll reduce my wager to $200. If either of them are less than 2/1, then I will replace that individual horse with $150 to win on #14 Strong Belief at 3/1 to 9/1,  or if that one isn’t in the zone then I’ll play $150 on #3 Endless Moon at 5/2 to 7/1.

Sunday, Del Mar Race 6 — 4:30 pm post time

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden Special Weight, 5-1/2 furlongs, 2-yo fillies

Possible overlays                    Morning line

#4 Saint Isabelle                         10/1
#5 Champagne d’Oro                    3/1
#9 The Great Atlantic                   5/1
#11 Pulpit Magic                          15/1

The median winning Beyer Speed Figure for this class is an 81 and #5 Champagne d”Oro ran a 76 and 77 in two of her three lifetime races.  Her last two runs were in the Cinderella Stakes on June 11 and the Landaluce on July 12, so this is a bit of a class drop.

This filly may win, but I expect her odds will be too low for a bet.

Of the five first-time starters scheduled to go, #4 Saint Isabelle is the best bet, but only if the price is right.

One horse who will likely be a bad wager is the Jerry Hollendorfer-trained #7 Softly Singing. No doubt this filly has been working out ultra impressively and her past performances are loaded with speedy drills and bullet works. The problem is that the public loves this type of first-time starter and she is almost certain to be bet below 7-to-2.

She will probably hit the board and even if she wins, Softly Singing’s odds won’t compensate for the risk.  The public will also probably overbet #2 Pure Class for the same reasons they like Softly Singing.

Five of these fillies have racing experience and #5 The Great Atlantic showed quick early speed in her first race on July 26. She could win at a decent price.

Finally, #11 Public Magic, a second time starter, has an outside shot if bet below 20/1.

I will put $200 to win on #4 Saint Isabelle at 7/2 to 19/1, I want $150 to win on #9 The Great Atlantic at 7/2 and up and $100 on #11 Pulpit Magic at 5/2 to 19/1.

Friday, Del Mar Race 9 — 7 pm post time

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Possible overlays                 Morning line

#1 Donthaveatizzy                         10/1
#5 Born to Cus                               8/1
#6 Wicked Mischief                         8/1
#7 Sven Diesel                               8/1
#9 Fiery Rebel                                7/2
#10 Megillah                                   9/2
#11 Hotsie                                      8/1

This race has many possible winners and I will be paying close attention to the odds board for further clues.

The horse who has the best past performances is #9 Fiery Rebel.  On June 19, he was wide on the turn, so I adjusted his 72 Beyer Speed Figure to 76. then on July 3, Fiery Rebel shot to a 2-1/2 length lead down the backstretch and kept that margin into the stretch in a 7-furlong race, only to lose by a nose at the wire. He still ran an 80 Beyer and if the race was a half a furlong shorter, his speed figure likely would have been better. Jockey Felipe Valdez, who went too wide on June 19 then too fast too early on July 3, is being replaced today by Garrett Gomez – a huge upgrade.

One training move Robert Hess seems to excel at is bringing maiden claimers off layoffs. He saddles #11 Hotsie and I will like this son of Flame Thrower more if the betting action is hot. 

However, jockey Victor Espinoza jumps off Hotsie to ride #10 Megillah. This Erik Kruljac trainee ran two credible races in the Spring at Santa Anita and is coming off a four-month layoff. My figures scream at me not to bet this horse, but in the Daily Racing Form I see that Kruljac won with six of his last 20 runners who were off from 61-180 days. And the average payoff for those runners was 7-to-2. Also, Kruljac and Espinoza won with nine of their last 36 and anybody who bet them all would be have gotten $1.76 for every $1 wagered.

One of the quickest horses in the race is #5 Born to Cus. I am throwing his last race out as jockey Joel Rosario took him to the lead then merely breezed him from the turn to the wire. On May 22, this 3-year-old showed good speed in a 7-furlong race before tiring, then on June 21 he came with a nice 4-wide rally. Today’s 6 furlong distance fits this gelding’s running style and, although he’s never run better than a 68, I believe Born to Cus can run a low-to-mid 70’s Beyer Speed Figure.

The key to the rail horse, #1 Donthaveatizzy — a second-time starter who has been laid off for a year – will be his post time odds. If Donthaveatizzy is 10-to-1 or higher I don’t think he’ll run well. But he’s dangerous if bet to 2/1 to 7/2 and has an outside chance at 4/1 to 9/1.

Finally, two first time starters deserve a long look. The first is #6 Wicked Mischief, whose listed purchase price at the Keeneland September sale is $160,000. Today, Wicked Mischief is entered for just $25,000, but Rosario is riding this one instead of Born to Cus and trainer Mike Mitchell has a great winning percentage in maiden claiming sprints for older horses.

The second debuter is #7 Sven Diesel. Usually, I would not consider a first time starter in these types of races, but Sven Diesel’s trainer Peter Eurton has won with two first timers in three tries at this class. Larry Zap, who purchases horses with Eurton, wrote today on his Twitter page: ”(Sven Diesel is) something to root for and maybe bet a couple $$ on…little guy can run a little.” 

My wagering possibilities are many, so I am ranking my horses in order of preference. So if more than one horse fits into the following betting zones, then I will bet the top three horses in this ranking order #9 Fiery Rebel, #5 Born to Cus, #7 Sven Diesel, #10 Megillah, #11 Hotsie and #6 Wicked Mischief.

If #11 Hotsie is 2/1 to 7/2 then I will bet $200 to win on him, but if he is 4/1 to 9/1 then my bet reduces to $150. At 10/1 and up, I’ll bet just $50.

On #10 Megillah, I will take $150 to win at odds of 3/1 to 8/1 only. As for #9 Fiery Rebel, I want $200 to win at 5/2 and up.

At 4/1 and up, I will take $150 to win on #5 Born to Cus. At 3/1 to 6/1, I will bet $150 on #6 Wicked Mischief and $200 on #7 Sven Diesel at 7/2 to 11/1.

Friday, Del Mar Race 2 — 3:30 pm post time

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden claiming $50K, 6-1/2 furlongs, 3 yo+

Possible overlays                  Morning line

#2 Great Home                              3/1
#4 Temerity                                  5/2
#6 Greely’s Ghost                          12/1

In this seven-horse field, I think #2 Great Home and #4 Temerity have good chances to win at decent odds. On April 29, Great Home was tugging jockey Joel Rosario, which suggests his best distance is probably shorter than the 1-1/16 miles he was running.

Today, trainer Neil Drysdale enters him at this shorter 6-1/2 furlong distance where his lack of speed won’t hurt him and his good late kick fits the winning profile. Great Home has the best last race Beyer Speed Figure, which happens to also be the best Beyer overall.

But Temerity probably ran the best race by any of the runners in here. On Feb. 7, Temerity broke toward the back of the pack in a maiden special weight sprint. On the turn, he came running about seven paths wide and despite the bad trip Temerity still earned an 80 Beyer Speed Figure. Temerity’s race could easily be adjusted to an 88 figuring that he’ll be no wider than the three path today.

As recently as a few years ago, Carla Gaines had one of the highest win percentages with second-time starters. She hasn’t been as successful with these types recently, but #6 Greely’s Ghost looks like the type that could improve dramatically enough to win.

Greely’s Ghost is moving down in class and has at least one quick workout. I’ll like him more if he gets betting action.

I am hoping that the public pounds #5 Loyal Son, who ran an 81 Beyer on July 5. This gelding, who is 5-to-2 on the morning line, hugged the rail that day and had a good trip.

It is difficult for me to separate Great Home and Temerity. But trainer Ron Ellis has had much more success in sprints than Neil Drysdale, so I am leaning toward Temerity.

Anyway, my plan is to bet $250 Temerity at 2/1 to 7/2. But if Temerity is bet outside the zone then instead I will bet $200 on Great Home at 2/1 or more.

Also, if Greely’s Ghost is between 5/1 and 9/1, then I will put $100 on him.

Thursday, Del Mar Race 8 — 5:30 pm post time

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden claiming $32,000, 5-1/2 furlongs, 2 yo fillies

Possible overlays                         Morning line

#2 Happy Hands                                 20/1
#3 Action Call                                      6/1
#5 Halmish Hy                                      8/1
#7 Zagora’s Pride                                 15/1
#10 Purse Luva                                    6/1
#11 Cardiff Giant                                  9/2

The gate appears full for this one with 14 fillies scheduled to made the 5-1/2 furlong trip.

The fastest demonstrated speed out of the gate goes to #3 Action Call, but she is trying maidens for the seventh time. Another contender is the Caesar Dominquez-trained #10 Purse Luva, who is dropping and adding blinkers for her second start and that’s a powerful one-two punch.

I won’t hesitate to bet many of the debuters in here if their prices are right. For various reasons, I like #2 Happy Hands, #5 Halmish Hy, #7 Zagora’s Pride and #11 Cardiff Giant.

I will bet $150 to win on #3 Action Call at 4/1 or more and $150 to win on #10 Purse Luva at 3/1 or better.

Also, I will place $150 wagers on any of these fillies at 10/1 to 19/1 only: #2 Happy Hands, #5 Halmish Hy, #7 Zagora’s Pride and #11 Cardiff Giant.

Thursday, Del Mar Race 4 — 3:30 pm post time

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden claiming, 5-1/2 furlongs, 2-year-old fillies

Possible overlays                      Morning line

#1 Bye Bye Hollywood                 12/1
#12 Action Gal                            3/1

The only filly that really sticks out here is #12 Action Gal. But second-timer #1 Bye Bye Hollywood is interesting because she almost won a 4-1/2 furlong race from an outside post position — which is nearly impossible.

Action Gal, a Mike Machowsky trainee, showed the best early speed of any of these in her debut race on Opening Day at Del Mar. In that race, Action Gal raced a distant second to Punctual before she faded to third.

She is the type of second-time starter that has run well in the past, but she may get caught wide breaking from the far outside post.

One of the three first-timers in the race may win, but I can’t bet any of them. And the third second-time starter – #5 Whatusaywhatusmean — looks hopeless. 

But Bye Bye Hollywood may run huge. Breaking from post #8 on May 21, Bye Bye Hollywood was caught 3-wide on the turn but still surged to the front in deep stretch before being passed by Lovers House. Also, trainer David La Croix has proven himself over the years with horses making their second lifetime start for owner Meadowbrook Farms.

I plan on betting $150 to win on #12 Action Gal at 5/2 and up and $100 on #1 Bye Bye Hollywood at 6/1 and higher.

Results, Del Mar Wednesday Race 6 — won $1,005

The experienced runners in this 12-horse field all looked weak considering that the median winning Beyer Speed Figure for the class was 59 and the best Beyer any of these could muster was just a 44.

I took a long look at the three-first time starters and saw that #2 Storm Needed, #3 Private Valentine and #9 Royalty Gone Wild all had positive betting angles going for them.

However, I wanted to see some betting action on Storm Needed and she went off at 16-to-1, which was well above my maximum post time odds of 8-to-1. Conversely, I was interested in Washington-bred Private Valentine only at 10/1 to 19/1, but she was surprisingly bet down to just 5-to-1.

I liked Royalty Gone Wild at anywhere from 7/2 up to 19/1, but planned to bump my bet from $150 to $200 if she was at least 10/1.

During the race, longshot #6 Giveme Tat Ting dueled with second-time starter #1 Escape Plan until the top of the stretch when Private Valentine surged to the leaders. Royalty Gone Wild ran near the back of the pack then came like an express train in the stretch to win by 6 lengths.

The only drawback with Royalty Gone Wild winning was that her odds were only 7/1, so I had just $150 on her instead of $200. Anyway, I ended up profiting $1,005 after subtracting out $300 which includes $150 on #10 Sheskey, a 7/1 shot who showed speed in her last.

To watch a replay of this race, go to www.calracing.com.

PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN 1 1 Escape Plan (KY) Talamo J Koriner B 4.20 3 2 2 Storm Needed (CA) Baze M Gaines C 16.20 9 3 3 Private Valentine (WA) Sorenson D Yakteen T 5.80 4 4 4 Bookdmyoceancruise (CA) Valdez F Fulmer D 74.50 10 5 5 Clear Imagine (KY) Arambula P DeLeon R 22.40 7 6 6 Giveme Tat Ting (CA) Delgadillo A Solis W 20.40 8 7 7 Fifty K (CA) Kaenel K Polanco M 65.20 11 8 8 Lena Miss (KY) Atkinson P Stute M 72.80 12 9 9 Royalty Gone Wild (CA) Santiago Reyes C Sadler J 7.70 1 10 10 Sheskey (KY) Quinonez A Gonzalez S 7.30 6 11 11 Rose S. (WA) Pedroza M Harrington M 15.30 5 12 12 Goldeneh Medina (CA) Espinoza V Kruljac J 1.70 2 SCR - Chatty Lula (CA)     - - SCR - Deceptively (FL)     - -

Pgm Win Place Show 9 $17.40 $7.00 $4.20 12 - $3.20 $2.60 1 - - $3.80   Exotic Payoffs $1.00 Exacta paid $25.30 (9-12) $1.00 Pick 3 paid $130.30 (1-3-9) $1.00 Superfecta paid $530.00 (9-12-1-3) $1.00 Trifecta paid $101.00 (9-12-1) $2.00 Daily Double paid $61.80 (3-9) $2.00 Quinella paid $22.80 (9-12) Fractional Times 22.89, 47.10, 59.28, 1:05.42

Wednesday, Del Mar Race 6 — 4:30 pm post time

Maiden King conquers So. Cal. maiden races

Maiden claiming $32,000, 5-1/2 furlongs, 2 yo fillies

Possible overlays                    Morning line

#1 Escape Plan                             4/1
#2 Storm Needed                          8/1
#3 Private Valentine                    10/1
#9 Royalty Gone Wild                 6/1
#10 Sheskey                                5/1

The median winning Beyer Speed Figure for this class is 59, but none of the fillies in this race has run better than a 44.

Three second-time starters — #1 Escape Plan, #11 Rose S. and #12 Goldeneh Medina — may improve. But I think the three first time starters are better bets.

Owner Harris Farms, who won with debuting 7-to-2 shot John Scott on Sunday, sends out first time runner #2 Storm Needed. And trainer Carla Gaines has a great record when her first timers go off at odds of 3/1 to 9/1.

Carla Gaines, who won with debuter John Scott on Sunday, trains FTS #2 Storm Needed

Another owner that does well with first timers is Tommy Town Thoroughbreds. They’re employing trainer John Sadler today to saddle #9 Royalty Gone Wild. 

It’s curious that #3 Private Valentine shows up at Del Mar. This Washington-bred switched circuits from the Peg. training track, which I’m unfamiliar with. Every now and then one of these outsiders comes to San Diego and lights up the tote in its first lifetime run.

In her second career race on July 16, #10 Sheskey was bet to 3-to-1 in an eight-horse field, and that was despite her low-profile connections. She showed good speed that day and might be a play at proper odds.

I will bet $200 on #2 Storm Needed but only at 3/1 to 9/1 and $150 on #9 Royalty Gone Wild at 7/2 to 9/1. However, if Royalty Gone Wild breaks into the 10/1 to 19/1 zone they I’ll bump my bet on her to $200.

Also, if #3 Private Valentine is 10/1 to 19/1 then I’ll wager $150 to win on her. Finally, if either Storm Needed or Royalty Gone Wild are 10/1 or greater then I’ll put $150 to win on #10 Sheskey at 3/1 or more.

Results, Del Mar Sunday Race 5 — won $270

In this race, jockey Garrett Gomez was riding the 9-to-5 morning line favorite #3 Bench the Judge. This colt was making its second start and had performed well in its July 5 debut.

Maybe if Bench the Judge was 5-to-2 or more I would have considered him, but with Gomez it wasn’t difficult to forecast this colt’s minuscule 4-to-5 post time odds. And that made it easy to look elsewhere for the winner.

I had a few possibilities: The owner of #6 Runaway Bandido, Judi Partridge,  won with a couple of debuters from a limited sample and Carla Gaines, the trainer of #5 John Scott, has a good record when her first-timers get betting action.

I also saw a few things to like in other debuters #10 L’Il Charlie Rose, #11 Twenty Hawks and #1A Full Effect. 

I was waiting for odds of 10/1 to 19/1 on #6 Runaway Bandido, #10 Charlie Rose and #11 Twenty Hawks. With a minute to post they were all in the range, so I bet them and #5 John Scott, who fell into my 3/1 to 9/1 parameter.

Runaway Bandido broke toward the back of the back, but came with a huge run in the stretch to briefly hold the lead with 100 yards to go. He almost gave me a giant payoff, as he clicked up to 21-to-1 in the final flash. Of course, I couldn’t have claimed the win on the blog, but real money is OK, too.

However, John Scott’s jockey Victor Espinoza was also hitting the gas in the stretch and that colt outran Runaway Bandido to the wire. Favorite Bench the Judge led at the top of the lane, but faded to third.

I had $150 on John Scott and collected $720, however subtracting out my three $150 wagers left me with only a $270 profit.

To watch a replay of this race, go to www.calracing.com.

PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN 2 1 Killer Bear (CA) Blanc B Knapp S 37.90 5 3 2 Bench the Judge (KY) Gomez G O’Neill D 0.90 3 4 3 Sammy’s a Runnin’ (CA) Baze M Sherman A 7.70 6 5 4 John Scott (CA) Espinoza V Gaines C 3.80 1 1 5 Zees Echo (CA) Talamo J Harrington M 9.10 8 6 6 Runaway Bandido (CA) Quinonez A Becerra R 21.30 2 9 7 Ministers Power (CA) Kaenel K Bonde J 46.70 7 10 8 L’Il Charlie Rose (CA) Pedroza M O’Neill D 13.90 10 11 9 Twenty Hawks (CA) Baze T Warren D 12.70 4 12 10 Screwball (CA) Delgadillo A Cenicola L 63.40 11 1A 11 Full Effect (CA) Garcia M Harrington M 9.10 9 SCR - A Plus Topper (CA)     - - SCR - Boldnregent (CA) Atkinson P Stute M - -

Pgm Win Place Show 5 $9.60 $6.80 $3.80 6 - $16.40 $6.80 3 - - $2.40   Exotic Payoffs $1.00 Exacta paid $73.90 (5-6) $1.00 Pick 3 paid $265.30 (2-7-5) $1.00 Superfecta paid $1796.20 (5-6-3-11) $1.00 Trifecta paid $221.30 (5-6-3) $2.00 Daily Double paid $183.20 (7-5) $2.00 Quinella paid $116.00 (5-6)

Results, Del Mar Sunday Race 2 — lost $200

Jockey Pedro Arambula and trainer Silverio Martinez rocked Del Mar with a $30 winner

I did a couple of things right in this race — like laying off the two Doug O’Neill-trained  horses, #5 Moon Over Malibu and #11 Juicy Lucy. These two fillies, who were 7-to-2 and 4-to-1 respectively, have had many chances to win, are usually bet well and have deteriorating form.

I opted, instead, for #10 Artistryandrhythm who was an 8-to-1 shot coming off a layoff of more than a year. This horse’s trainer, Ron Ellis, has a good record with this type of horse and over the years this angle has been profitable.

Artistryandrhythm bounded out of the gate first, which is always a good sign, but ran in the middle of the pack the rest of the way. I also made one major mistake and that was not taking a closer look at the winner, #6 Classy Attraction.

When I checked the early pace with my software, Classy Attraction had the top speed to the quarter mile, which is another money-making angle. In 2008, she was four lengths behind a 20-3/5 second quarter mile and in another race she had the lead with a 21-3/5 second quarter.

But Classy Attraction hadn’t run since May 2008 and I shied away from his low-profile connections of jockey Pedro Arambula and trainer Silverio Martinez. If she was any good, I thought, why wouldn’t somebody more accomplished be training her?

Others must have overlooked her too, as she wired the field and paid $30.40. In the end,  it looks like Arambula and Martinez got the last laugh.

To watch a replay of this race, go to www.calracing.com

PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN 1 1 Aldora (KY) Pedroza M Pender M 2.70 2 2 2 Emba U. T. K. (KY) Stra K Ho H 28.60 6 3 3 Dee Dee’s Flight (CA) Delgadillo A Sierra C 19.90 8 4 4 Dan’s Morning Sky (CA) Kaenel K Fulmer D 80.00 10 5 5 Moon Over Malibu (KY) Baze T O’Neill D 3.80 3 6 6 Classy Attraction (KY) Arambula P Martinez S 14.20 1 7 7 Cisco’s Girl (CA) Scott J Flores F 58.00 11 8 8 With Respect (CA) Blanc B McCarthy S 15.80 4 9 9 Sweet Allie Marie (CA) Rosario J Abrams B 4.70 5 10 10 Artistryandrhythm (CA) Santiago Reyes C Ellis R 8.80 7 11 11 Juicy Lucy (CA) Gryder A O’Neill D 4.00 9

Pgm Win Place Show 6 $30.40 $13.20 $8.20 1 - $4.20 $3.20 5 - - $3.20   Exotic Payoffs $1.00 Exacta paid $75.90 (6-1) $1.00 Superfecta paid $2928.40 (6-1-5-8) $1.00 Trifecta paid $325.20 (6-1-5) $2.00 Daily Double paid $184.80 (3-6) $2.00 Quinella paid $69.40 (1-6)

Results, Del Mar Saturday Race 4 — lost $400

Trainer Jerry Hollendorfer is part owner of Lions Story, who won Saturday's 4th.

The best value horse in this race turned out to be #3 Seattle Ruler. He was making his fourth start and his Beyer Speed Figure improved every time he hit the track. Also, Seattle Ruler showed the quickest first quarter mile in his past performances of any of these runners.

At 19/1, I had $100 on him and Seattle Ruler led most of the way, but was no match for #7 Lions Story, who wore him down in the stretch. I also liked #5 Magic Max, who was making his first lifetime start for trainer Bob Baffert.

Magic Max, who fit the profile of a Baffert debut winner, broke slowly but made a quick wide move on the turn. In the stretch, jockey Victor Espinosa didn’t seem to be riding as hard as he was on the turn and Magic Max flattened out at 6-to-1.

The bettors enthusiastically went for second-time starter Lions Story, who was 7-to-5, and #2 Ivory Fudge, whose post time odds were a mere 2-to-1.

To watch a replay of this race, go to www.calracing.com.

PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN 1 1 Worth a Punt (KY) Solis A Zucker H 15.40 6 2 2 Ivory Fudge (KY) Gomez G Sadler J 2.30 4 3 3 Seattle Ruler (KY) Garcia M Harrington M 19.20 2 4 4 Alfarabi (KY) Gryder A Harty E 4.20 3 5 5 Magic Max (FL) Espinoza V Baffert B 6.90 5 6 6 Wayman (KY) Pedroza M Mollica M 30.80 7 7 7 Lions Story (FL) Rosario J Hollendorfer J 1.40 1 8 8 Happy M. B. A. (CA) Stra K Ho H 61.00 8

Pgm Win Place Show 7 $4.80 $3.60 $2.80 3 - $12.20 $6.20 4 - - $3.40   Exotic Payoffs $1.00 Exacta paid $27.50 (7-3) $1.00 Pick 3 paid $11.90 (2-1-7) $1.00 Superfecta paid $223.00 (7-3-4-2)

Results, Del Mar Saturday Race 3 — lost $150

Alex Solis brought 6-to-5 shot #1 Magic Yodeler home for trainer Mike Harrington

Many horseplayers believe that when first-time starters are getting heavily bet, then it’s time to also get on board. They think that the insiders — trainers, owners, workout analysts and jockeys — knocked the odds down with huge bets because they saw the debuter train and they know that it can’t lose. 

But that theory couldn’t be further from the truth. In fact, first-time starters going off at 3-to-1 or less are some of the worst bets in the Southern California maiden ranks. They win 20 percent of the time, but return just 66 cents for every $1 wagered.

In this race, the Doug O’Neill-trained #7 High Five Gal was making her first start after scorching the track with fast morning workouts. She was the 9-to-5 morning line favorite and leading rider Joel Rosario was aboard.

In the actual wagering, she wasn’t the favorite, but was still pounded to 8-to-5. High Five Gal ran well to be a game second to #1 Magic Yodeler, who was also no bargain at 6-to-5.

I was prepared to bet Magic Yodeler at 5-to-2 or more, but the betting public laid off second-time starters #2 Siberian Heart and #3 Brianna Marie. So Magic Yodeler’s price was too short.

I ended up with a $150 bet on #5 Whispering Hush at 12-to-1, who finished third.

To watch a replay of this race, go to www.calracing.com.

PGM PP# NAME JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS FN 1 1 Magic Yodeler (CA) Solis A Harrington M 1.20 1 2 2 Siberian Heart (CA) Berrio O Stute G 10.00 5 3 3 Brianna Marie (CA) Talamo J Headley B 6.40 4 4 4 Multiplyingtheheat (KY) Atkinson P Stute M 31.60 6 5 5 Whispering Hush (CA) Espinoza V Kruljac J 12.70 3 6 6 Warren’s Hot Tide (CA) Baze M Gutierrez J 41.30 7 7 7 High Five Gal (CA) Rosario J O’Neill D 1.60 2

Pgm Win Place Show 1 $4.40 $2.40 $2.20 7 - $2.60 $2.60 5 - - $3.40   Exotic Payoffs $1.00 Exacta paid $4.60 (1-7) $1.00 Pick 3 paid $30.00 (5-2-1) $1.00 Trifecta